Climate change is a multifaceted global phenomenon that poses a significant threat
to critical infrastructure water availability, human health, etc. as evidenced by
increasing occurrences and severity of extreme weather events. A vital step in
minimising the long-term effects of climate change is reducing carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions. To this end, countries worldwide have committed to reaching net zero
emissions in the future.
The UK has committed to decarbonising its electricity system by 2035. The
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero accepted that hydropower is critical to
delivering greater energy security and independence, economic growth, and the UK’s
net zero ambitions. While most large hydropower sites have been utilised in the UK,
run of river (RoR) hydropower is a type of hydropower generation that has the
potential to be further developed in the UK, to meet the country’s ambitious net zero
target. RoR systems work in the same way as large hydropower schemes, except
they are not dependent on water storage but instead are reliant on the natural
seasonality of river flows. The benefits of RoR systems include smaller initial
investments, shorter planning and construction times, use of smaller areas for
construction, less inundation (if any) compared to large hydropower, and the typical
use of local labour and materials. Considering the RoR advantages over large
hydropower and the Climate Change Committee’s recommendation for fast
renewables development, RoR hydropower could be developed to support the UK’s
net zero targets. Although hydropower is generally a well-developed and wellresearched technology, the effects of climate change and the potential risks to RoR
hydropower are not fully understood. Addressing this gap is crucial for informed
decision-making, enabling effective adaptation strategies to be developed and
ensuring the resilience of RoR hydropower in the face of evolving climatic conditions.
This thesis aims to improve the understanding of RoR hydropower potential and the
effects and risks climate change has on this type of hydropower. This includes the
mapping of RoR hydropower potential, the impacts of future river flow changes on RoR hydropower and an assessment of the potential risks to RoR hydropower
generation using Great Britain (due to lack of data for Northern Ireland) as a case
study area. It develops a comprehensive methodology to assess the RoR hydropower
potentials for various scheme sizes – pico, micro, mini, and small – across the study
area. Notably, it evaluates the maximum hydrological and realisable potentials in
addition to the financial and technical potentials considered in prior studies. The
subsequent phase explores the impact of climate change on river flows and RoR
hydropower potential in Great Britain, utilising the eFLaG future flows projections
based on the latest UK climate data (UKCP18). The investigation extends further into
how hydropower drought is defined and climate change implications on this
phenomenon are explored, illustrated through virtual RoR schemes. This streamlined
approach contributes valuable insights into RoR hydropower potentials and their
susceptibility to climate-induced changes, providing a foundation for practical
applications in planning and adapting hydropower schemes.
For the test region, this research identifies the total hydrological RoR hydropower
potential to be 20 GW, technical potential to be 11 GW, financially viable potential to
be between 320 MW to 420 MW, and the realisable potential to be between 290 MW
to 320 MW. Most of the realisable schemes are found to be either mini or small (100
kW – 5 MW), situated in the west and north-west parts of Great Britain, with the
largest realisable potential in the Taff Group catchment in Wales (20 MW). However,
RoR hydropower potential throughout Great Britain is found to decrease in the near
and far future in summer and autumn and increase in spring and winter. The
increases in spring (~1.60 %) and in winter (~1.70 %) are smaller than the
decreases in summer (~ -19 %) and autumn (~ -11%). Therefore, RoR hydropower
plants are likely to see a decreased energy output in the future. Furthermore, the
results show that hydropower drought is a phenomenon that affects RoR, with
schemes experiencing summer hydropower drought events with the high frequency
and severity. This analysis shows that on an annual scale, the duration of drought
events is expected to increase by approximately two days across Great Britain,
accompanied by a 13.5% rise in both the frequency and severity of hydropower
droughts in the near future. This thesis adds to the understanding of the RoR potential and offers a reliable
estimate of the amount of RoR hydropower that can be produced alongside suitable
RoR scheme locations to support next zero targets. Furthermore, the findings of this
study have practical implications for the planning of new RoR schemes and adapting
already operational schemes. The methodology developed here could be applied to
other countries or regions with similar climatic regimes to Great Britain, such as
Canada, New Zealand or France, to gain further knowledge of hydropower potential
and risks. Using the same methodology over multiple regions could help create a
consistent database containing RoR hydropower potential informing of potential
renewable resources to help reach net zero targets.
| Date of Award | 18 Feb 2025 |
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| Original language | English |
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| Awarding Institution | - University Of Strathclyde
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| Sponsors | University of Strathclyde |
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| Supervisor | Chris White (Supervisor) & Doug Bertram (Supervisor) |
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