Electric vehicles (EVs) are thought to have the potential to contribute to more sustainable transport systems. However, the efficacy of the EV transition in Scotland to meet
governmental emission reduction targets is unclear. Additionally, to support an equitable transition to EVs, it is pertinent to understand the current state and utilisation
of public EV charging in Scotland, and the subsequent implications for development
of an inclusive public charging network. Investigating the public charger population
required by 2030 that will enable equitable geographic access to chargers will also be
important.
Therefore, this thesis develops, validates and applies a system dynamics model of the
Scottish road passenger transport sector to interrogate the efficacy of the following interventions up to 2030: modal shifting of sub-10km car journeys to active travel, modal
shifting of medium-length car journeys to buses, achieving a majority electrification of
the bus fleet, and replacing 50% of petrol/diesel cars with EVs. An extensive, nationally representative dataset of Scottish public EV charging sessions is then developed
and analysed to gain insights into charger location and utilisation. Finally, the charger
population required by 2030 under the modelling scenarios which achieved government
targets is estimated.
Results indicate that the EV transition is predicted to be the most effective emission
reducing intervention of those considered, although multiple interventions are likely
needed to meet government targets. Analysis of the developed public charging dataset
resulted in insights including quantified utilisation disparities between charger technologies, with 35% of slower chargers being used at least once daily compared to 86%
of rapid/ultra-rapid chargers, and demonstration that charging tariff introductions resulted in a 51.3% average decrease in sessions. The charger population required by
2030 to ensure equitable access ranged between 7,546 and 46,606 chargers depending
on the scenario, with charger technology being particularly impactful on the charger
population required.
| Date of Award | 28 Jul 2025 |
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| Original language | English |
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| Awarding Institution | - University Of Strathclyde
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| Sponsors | University of Strathclyde |
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| Supervisor | Stuart Galloway (Supervisor) & I Safak Bayram (Supervisor) |
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