A conceptual model of trust in emergency evacuation : evidence from Indonesian volcano eruptions

  • H Hilya Mudrika Arini

Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis


This research develops a conceptual model of trust during emergency evacuations in Indonesia. Drawing upon the cultural theory of Douglas (1978) as the theoretical basis, this research explores and identifies the main components required to build a conceptual model in agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) by: (1) improving the existing situational judgment test (SJT) scoring method for clustering people's trust into cultural categories; (2) identifying the differences between each cultural category; and (3) investigating the factors that encourage people in each category to shift to another category when they face three different situations.To accomplish the research goal, a two-case comparative study in Merapi and Sinabung is conducted using: (1) semi-structured interviews with government representatives, non-government leaders, and anthropologists; and (2) an empirical survey of villagers in Merapi and Sinabung. The interview results are analysed using thematic analysis, which provides the information needed to develop the initial conceptual model and to construct the SJT used in the survey questionnaire. The survey results are then analysed using three different methods: (1) hierarchical and k-means clustering, to improve the existing SJT scoring method; (2) a non-parametric test to identify the differences between cultural categories; and (3) multinomial logistic regression (MLR) to identify the factors encouraging people in each category to shift to another category. Finally, the survey results are used to verify the initial conceptual model developed following the interviews.The research finds that the hierarchical and k-means clustering methods can successfully improve the existing SJT scoring method due to the higher consistency achieved in the validation process. Four and two cultural categories are found in Merapi and Sinabung, respectively. On the other hand, this research also successfully distinguishes between the cultural categories based on attributes grouped into three aspects - socio-demographic, evacuation behaviour, and psychological aspects - and identifies the factors that encourage people in each category to shift to another category when they face three different situations: (1) when the volcano shows eruption signs; (2) when a long duration eruption occurs; and (3) when the volcano erupts. These results are used as the main components to verify the initial conceptual model of trust. The verified conceptual model developed in this research can be utilised in the future as a basis on which to simulate people's trust during emergency evacuations using ABMS, and can also help policy-makers in Indonesian disaster management to better comprehend future ABMS.
Date of Award15 Sept 2018
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • University Of Strathclyde
SupervisorTim Bedford (Supervisor) & John Quigley (Supervisor)

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