Wind farm capital cost regression model for accurate life cycle cost estimation

David Mcmillan, Graham W. Ault

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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Abstract

Various studies over the last decade have attempted to forecast capital cost of wind power. The main assumption underpinning these models is that cost reductions will accrue indefinitely from technological learning over time. In this paper a regression model is proposed for wind farm capital cost which is based on commodities price and water depth rather than technological learning. With greater simplicity and certainty in the theoretical foundations of such a model, it is possible to gain realistic estimates of wind turbine capital cost. Such pragmatic and well-reasoned output is needed so that wind farm developers can understand their future risk exposure to price fluctuations in capital cost of plant.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2012
EventPMAPS 2012 - Istanbul, Turkey
Duration: 10 Jun 201214 Jun 2012

Conference

ConferencePMAPS 2012
CountryTurkey
CityIstanbul
Period10/06/1214/06/12

Keywords

  • wind farm
  • regression model
  • cost estimation
  • accurate life cycle
  • capital cost
  • CAPEX

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  • Cite this

    Mcmillan, D., & Ault, G. W. (2012). Wind farm capital cost regression model for accurate life cycle cost estimation. Paper presented at PMAPS 2012, Istanbul, Turkey.