Wave modeling uncertainty in global wave climate projections: assessment and quantification

Ocean wind waves are projected to changeover the twenty-first century under a warming climate. The standard approach to conduct these studies is based on wave climate projections. These products represent future wave climates, for different scenarios, developed using forcing drivers from global climate models (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). Projected changes in wave climate are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty (see Figure): aleatoric uncertainty, socio-economic scenario uncertainty, uncertainty related to GCMs and the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave modeling.