Visualisation of probabilistic access forecasts for offshore operations

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Abstract

Access forecasting aims to predict the quality of transfer of maintenance technicians to/from vessels and the constituent offshore structures at the wind farm. This is highly dependent on sea state conditions as well as other environmental factors such as visibility. Typically, scheduling or dispatch decisions are made on the basis of deterministic forecasts of significant wave height, often coupled with service contracts where transfers are expected to be attempted below a threshold significant wave height. However, there is always uncertainty in a weather prediction which can be accounted for by probabilistic forecasts. The aim of this work is to explore visualisation ideas for transforming vessel specific access forecasts into an interpretable and intuitive decision-support tool. Three simple methods are proposed based on a score out of 10, classification of transfer conditions, and a threshold score. Methods for summarising access conditions for 2-5 days ahead are also developed. This new forecasting and visualisation capability has significant implications for marine coordinators and skippers who will be able to make better informed safety-critical decisions, with the potential for reductions in the cost-of-energy offshore.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012040
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Physics: Conference Series
Volume1222
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 21 May 2019
EventWindEurope Conference 2019 - Bilbao, Bilbao, Spain
Duration: 2 Apr 20194 Apr 2019

Keywords

  • offshore wind power operations
  • wind farms
  • turbines
  • energy forecasting
  • weather prediction

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