Abstract
One of the main features of this commentary since its inception in July 1975 has
been its regular unemployment forecasts. Each issue has incorporated a prediction
of Scottish unemployment six months ahead. Since these forecasts have been produced for some time, it is now reasonable to assess their performance. Specifically, in this note, two questions will be addressed: (1) firstly, how accurate were the forecasts in terms of conformity to the actual outturn? (2) secondly, is there any evidence of systematic bias in the forecasts? : that is, is there a tendency for the predictions to take too optimistic or too pessimistic a view of the future course of
unemployment?
been its regular unemployment forecasts. Each issue has incorporated a prediction
of Scottish unemployment six months ahead. Since these forecasts have been produced for some time, it is now reasonable to assess their performance. Specifically, in this note, two questions will be addressed: (1) firstly, how accurate were the forecasts in terms of conformity to the actual outturn? (2) secondly, is there any evidence of systematic bias in the forecasts? : that is, is there a tendency for the predictions to take too optimistic or too pessimistic a view of the future course of
unemployment?
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 36-38 |
| Number of pages | 3 |
| Journal | Quarterly Economic Commentary |
| Volume | 5 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| Publication status | Published - Apr 1980 |
Keywords
- unemployment forecasts
- Scottish economy
- Scotland
- employment patterns
- labour market conditions