Unemployment forecasts

David N.F. Bell, Gary Emmett, Neil Fraser, Douglas Hamilton, Anne Jowett, James W. McGilvray, Frank X. Kirwan, Lyle Moar, Ian Orton, David R. F. Simpson, A. A. Wingfield, David N.F. Bell (Editor)

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    One of the main features of this commentary since its inception in July 1975 has
    been its regular unemployment forecasts. Each issue has incorporated a prediction
    of Scottish unemployment six months ahead. Since these forecasts have been produced for some time, it is now reasonable to assess their performance. Specifically, in this note, two questions will be addressed: (1) firstly, how accurate were the forecasts in terms of conformity to the actual outturn? (2) secondly, is there any evidence of systematic bias in the forecasts? : that is, is there a tendency for the predictions to take too optimistic or too pessimistic a view of the future course of
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)36-38
    Number of pages3
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - Apr 1980


    • unemployment forecasts
    • Scottish economy
    • Scotland
    • employment patterns
    • labour market conditions


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