Uncertainty propagation in SINBAD fusion benchmarks with total Monte Carlo and imprecise probabilities

Ander Gray, Andrew Davis, Edoardo Patelli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In this paper we perform nuclear data uncertain propagation with Total Monte Carlo, where the transport simulation is repeated for random evaluations of the data. The Oktavian Iron, Oktavian Nickel, and the Frascati Neutron Generator (FNG) neutron streaming SINBAD benchmarks were evaluated with OpenMC. Gaussian random deviates were drawn from the ENDF/B-VII.1 and TENDL-2017 libraries where the covariances were available. Uncertainty from multiple nuclides was propagated simultaneously assuming inter-nuclide independence. When the individual statistical uncertainty is negligible compared to the data uncertainty, then standard probability theory may be applied. If this is not the case and both need to be considered, we use Imprecise Probabilities (IP) to perform further analysis. We show how uncertain experimental data may be compared to uncertain simulation in the context of IP, and show how an uncertainty-based sensitivity analysis can be performed with IP.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)802-812
Number of pages11
JournalFusion Science and Technology
Issue number7-8
Early online date4 Aug 2021
Publication statusPublished - 17 Nov 2021


  • nuclear and high energy physics
  • mechanical engineering
  • general materials science
  • nuclear energy and engineering
  • civil and structural engineering


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