Uncertainty modelling on coupled models using minimum information methods

Tim Bedford, Kevin Wilson, Alireza Daneshkhah

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Probabilistic inversion is used to take expert uncertainty assessments about observable model outputs and build from them a distribution on the model parameters that captures the uncertainty expressed by the experts. In this paper we look at ways to use minimum information methods to do this, focussing in particular on the problem of ensuring consistency between expert assessments about differing variables, either as outputs from a single model, or potentially as outputs along a chain of models. The paper shows how such a problem can be structured and then illustrates the method with an example involving atmospheric dispersion and deposition.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2012
EventPSAM11 & ESREL 2012 - Helsinki, Finland
Duration: 25 Jun 201229 Jun 2012

Conference

ConferencePSAM11 & ESREL 2012
CountryFinland
CityHelsinki
Period25/06/1229/06/12

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Keywords

  • minimum information
  • coupled models
  • expert judgement
  • probabilistic risk analysis

Cite this

Bedford, T., Wilson, K., & Daneshkhah, A. (2012). Uncertainty modelling on coupled models using minimum information methods. Paper presented at PSAM11 & ESREL 2012, Helsinki, Finland.