This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence:(i) supports the expansion of ECB’s UMP measures since 2015;(ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below but close to 2% over the medium term.
|Place of Publication||Washington D.C.|
|Number of pages||45|
|Publication status||Published - 30 Jun 2018|
- trend inflation
- market-based inflation expectations
- state space model
- stochastic volatility