Towards the integration of system modelling with scenario planning to support strategy: the case of the UK energy industry

George Burt

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    15 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    A key aspect of strategy is sense-making of the unfolding uncertainty in the business environment and responding appropriately to achieve organisational objectives. However, uncertainty means that there is more than one futue open to an organisation. Sense-making is therefore problematic. Scenario planning is one approach to sense-making that helps to explore and understand uncertainty, aiming for the identification of potential predetermined elements in the business environment. In this paper we propose the integration of systems modelling with scenario planning to support the exploration of uncertainty, identify knowledge gaps that set a (subsequent) research agenda, understand the role and usefulness of historical data, and model research outcomes to help reveal potential predetermined elements. Specifically, scenario planning identifies potential predetermined elements in the business environment; system modelling in the form of behaviour-over-time graphs, casual mapping and feedback loops helps in structuring and linking variables and their interaction to provide an understanding of the systemic drivers of these predetermined elements. Methodological integration of this type enhances modellers' ability to support strategy in organisations.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages830-839
    Number of pages10
    JournalJournal of the Operational Research Society
    Volume62
    Issue number5
    Early online date12 May 2010
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2010

    Fingerprint

    Planning
    Industry
    Feedback
    Uncertainty
    Energy industry
    System modeling
    Scenario planning
    Business environment
    Sensemaking
    Interaction
    Outcomes research
    Usefulness
    Knowledge gap
    Research agenda
    Graph

    Keywords

    • scenario planning
    • facilitated modelling
    • casual mapping
    • systemic drivers of change
    • predetermined elements
    • integration
    • system modelling

    Cite this

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