Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems

Jose Ignacio Aizpurua , Victoria M. Catterson

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An effective implementation of prognostic technology can reduce costs and increase availability of assets. As a result of the rapidly growing interest in prognostics, researchers have independently developed a number of applications for asset-specific modelling and prediction. Consequently, there is some inconsistency in the understanding of key concepts for designing prognostic systems. This further complicates the already-challenging design of new prognostic systems. In order to progress from application-specific solutions towards structured and efficient prognostic implementations, the development of a comprehensive and pragmatic methodology is essential. Prognostic algorithm selection is a key activity to achieve consistency throughout the design process. In this paper we present a design decision framework which guides the designer towards a prognostic algorithm through a cause-effect flowchart. Failure modes, application characteristics, and qualitative and quantitative metrics are used to determine an appropriate approach for the stated problem. The application of the methodology can reduce the time and effort required to develop a prognostic system, ensure that all the possible design options have been considered, and provide a means to compare different prognostic algorithms consistently. The framework has been applied to different prognostic problems within the power industry to illuminate its effectiveness. Case studies are presented to show how the framework guides designers through the choice of prognostic algorithm according to system requirements. The results demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to the design of prognostic systems which consistently meet the established requirements.

Conference

ConferenceAnnual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015
Abbreviated titlePHM15
CountryUnited States
CityCoronado, California.
Period18/10/1524/10/15
Internet address

Fingerprint

Failure modes
Availability
Costs
Industry

Keywords

  • prognostic technology
  • design decision framework
  • power industry

Cite this

Aizpurua , J. I., & Catterson, V. M. (2015). Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems. 504-517. Paper presented at Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, Coronado, California. , United States.
Aizpurua , Jose Ignacio ; Catterson, Victoria M. / Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems. Paper presented at Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, Coronado, California. , United States.14 p.
@conference{c84eb463cb594920b80f0962b225c931,
title = "Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems",
abstract = "An effective implementation of prognostic technology can reduce costs and increase availability of assets. As a result of the rapidly growing interest in prognostics, researchers have independently developed a number of applications for asset-specific modelling and prediction. Consequently, there is some inconsistency in the understanding of key concepts for designing prognostic systems. This further complicates the already-challenging design of new prognostic systems. In order to progress from application-specific solutions towards structured and efficient prognostic implementations, the development of a comprehensive and pragmatic methodology is essential. Prognostic algorithm selection is a key activity to achieve consistency throughout the design process. In this paper we present a design decision framework which guides the designer towards a prognostic algorithm through a cause-effect flowchart. Failure modes, application characteristics, and qualitative and quantitative metrics are used to determine an appropriate approach for the stated problem. The application of the methodology can reduce the time and effort required to develop a prognostic system, ensure that all the possible design options have been considered, and provide a means to compare different prognostic algorithms consistently. The framework has been applied to different prognostic problems within the power industry to illuminate its effectiveness. Case studies are presented to show how the framework guides designers through the choice of prognostic algorithm according to system requirements. The results demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to the design of prognostic systems which consistently meet the established requirements.",
keywords = "prognostic technology, design decision framework, power industry",
author = "Aizpurua, {Jose Ignacio} and Catterson, {Victoria M.}",
year = "2015",
month = "10",
day = "19",
language = "English",
pages = "504--517",
note = "Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, PHM15 ; Conference date: 18-10-2015 Through 24-10-2015",
url = "https://www.phmsociety.org/",

}

Aizpurua , JI & Catterson, VM 2015, 'Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems' Paper presented at Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, Coronado, California. , United States, 18/10/15 - 24/10/15, pp. 504-517.

Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems. / Aizpurua , Jose Ignacio; Catterson, Victoria M.

2015. 504-517 Paper presented at Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, Coronado, California. , United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems

AU - Aizpurua , Jose Ignacio

AU - Catterson, Victoria M.

PY - 2015/10/19

Y1 - 2015/10/19

N2 - An effective implementation of prognostic technology can reduce costs and increase availability of assets. As a result of the rapidly growing interest in prognostics, researchers have independently developed a number of applications for asset-specific modelling and prediction. Consequently, there is some inconsistency in the understanding of key concepts for designing prognostic systems. This further complicates the already-challenging design of new prognostic systems. In order to progress from application-specific solutions towards structured and efficient prognostic implementations, the development of a comprehensive and pragmatic methodology is essential. Prognostic algorithm selection is a key activity to achieve consistency throughout the design process. In this paper we present a design decision framework which guides the designer towards a prognostic algorithm through a cause-effect flowchart. Failure modes, application characteristics, and qualitative and quantitative metrics are used to determine an appropriate approach for the stated problem. The application of the methodology can reduce the time and effort required to develop a prognostic system, ensure that all the possible design options have been considered, and provide a means to compare different prognostic algorithms consistently. The framework has been applied to different prognostic problems within the power industry to illuminate its effectiveness. Case studies are presented to show how the framework guides designers through the choice of prognostic algorithm according to system requirements. The results demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to the design of prognostic systems which consistently meet the established requirements.

AB - An effective implementation of prognostic technology can reduce costs and increase availability of assets. As a result of the rapidly growing interest in prognostics, researchers have independently developed a number of applications for asset-specific modelling and prediction. Consequently, there is some inconsistency in the understanding of key concepts for designing prognostic systems. This further complicates the already-challenging design of new prognostic systems. In order to progress from application-specific solutions towards structured and efficient prognostic implementations, the development of a comprehensive and pragmatic methodology is essential. Prognostic algorithm selection is a key activity to achieve consistency throughout the design process. In this paper we present a design decision framework which guides the designer towards a prognostic algorithm through a cause-effect flowchart. Failure modes, application characteristics, and qualitative and quantitative metrics are used to determine an appropriate approach for the stated problem. The application of the methodology can reduce the time and effort required to develop a prognostic system, ensure that all the possible design options have been considered, and provide a means to compare different prognostic algorithms consistently. The framework has been applied to different prognostic problems within the power industry to illuminate its effectiveness. Case studies are presented to show how the framework guides designers through the choice of prognostic algorithm according to system requirements. The results demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to the design of prognostic systems which consistently meet the established requirements.

KW - prognostic technology

KW - design decision framework

KW - power industry

UR - https://www.phmsociety.org/

UR - https://www.phmsociety.org/sites/phmsociety.org/files/PHM15Proceedings.pdf

M3 - Paper

SP - 504

EP - 517

ER -

Aizpurua JI, Catterson VM. Towards a methodology for design of prognostic systems. 2015. Paper presented at Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, Coronado, California. , United States.