Towards a high-resolution, stochastic, domestic energy demand model to assess the local network impact of heat and transport electrification

Electrification of domestic heat and transport will significantly increase loading on the distribution network. Understanding the capacity implications will require an increased focus on the impact of individual household behaviours. A high resolution domestic energy model has been developed for the assessment of demand at the individual distribution network feeder scale. At this level stochastic variation in multiple elements (e.g. occupancy, appliance ownership, use timing, heating type, vehicle mileage etc.) are all important in determining the demand profile at different timescales. Modules have been incorporated for each stochastic element, with significant input flexibility to alter behaviour and technical assumptions. The output from the model indicates that understanding use behaviours, particularly heating and EV charging behaviours, will be critical for understanding potential impacts at the local level and to ensure that maximum demand assumptions account for local conditions.