Abstract
The standard economic approach to analyzing the climate change problem has been to search for efficient abatement policies. The massive uncertainties and the possibility for cataclysmic climate damages, however, suggest that a risk management approach is more appropriate. This shifts the policy question to how much risk of catastrophe society is willing to accept. Intuitively, this change in focus may shift our information needs, and the needs should be assessed through a value-of-information analysis. Such calculations should allow for examination of how improved information alters the probability of exceeding a given policy target, incorporate rigorous expert judgment for determining beliefs and quantifying uncertainties, and highlight what scientific information is most valuable for a policymaker attempting to keep the probability of catastrophic climate impacts below a set threshold. We discuss how Bayesian belief nets can be useful tools for this type of analysis.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | The value of information |
| Subtitle of host publication | methodological frontiers and new applications in environment and health |
| Editors | Ramanan Laxminarayan, Molly K. Macauley |
| Publisher | Springer Netherlands |
| Pages | 19-43 |
| Number of pages | 25 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9789400748385 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2012 |
Keywords
- value of information
- risk management approach
- climate change
