The Scottish economy [September 1992]

Mark McFarland, Brian Ashcroft, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Kevin Leif, Jim Love, Cliff Lockyer, Eleanor Malloy, Peter McGregor, Iain McNicoll, Eric McRory, Jim Stevens, Kim Swales, Ya Ping Yin, Mark McFarland (Editor), Fraser of Allander Institute

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Abstract

There are quite significant revisions in the latest index of production and construction for Scotland released recently by the Scottish Office. For example, a fall of 0.2% recorded in the May issue of the official news release in die seasonally adjusted output index for production industries (Division 1 to 4 of the 1980 SIC) in the final quarter last year is now revised to be a rise of 0.2%. The latest news release (11 August) also shows a further decline of 2% in output in the first quarter this year.

These revisions have a major impact on our forecasts. Our last forecast was led to point to the wrong directions in both of the above cases. The present forecast is based on the revised official data and National Institute's revised UK output forecast. The latter has been revised down quite substantially from the previous forecast. Our present forecasting period extends to the fourth quarter of 1993.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)11-55
Number of pages45
JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
Volume18
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1992

Keywords

  • Scottish economic trends
  • economic forecasts
  • Scottish economic performance
  • industrial production
  • Scottish GDP growth
  • Scottish gross domestic product (GDP)
  • Scotland
  • industrial output
  • unemployment patterns
  • labour market trends
  • business confidence

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    McFarland, M., Ashcroft, B., Draper, P., Dunlop, S., Leif, K., Love, J., ... Fraser of Allander Institute (1992). The Scottish economy [September 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 18(1), 11-55.