Abstract
There are quite significant revisions in the latest index of production and construction for Scotland released recently by the Scottish Office. For example, a fall of 0.2% recorded in the May issue of the official news release in die seasonally adjusted output index for production industries (Division 1 to 4 of the 1980 SIC) in the final quarter last year is now revised to be a rise of 0.2%. The latest news release (11 August) also shows a further decline of 2% in output in the first quarter this year.
These revisions have a major impact on our forecasts. Our last forecast was led to point to the wrong directions in both of the above cases. The present forecast is based on the revised official data and National Institute's revised UK output forecast. The latter has been revised down quite substantially from the previous forecast. Our present forecasting period extends to the fourth quarter of 1993.
These revisions have a major impact on our forecasts. Our last forecast was led to point to the wrong directions in both of the above cases. The present forecast is based on the revised official data and National Institute's revised UK output forecast. The latter has been revised down quite substantially from the previous forecast. Our present forecasting period extends to the fourth quarter of 1993.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 11-55 |
| Number of pages | 45 |
| Journal | Quarterly Economic Commentary |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - Sept 1992 |
Keywords
- Scottish economic trends
- economic forecasts
- Scottish economic performance
- industrial production
- Scottish GDP growth
- Scottish gross domestic product (GDP)
- Scotland
- industrial output
- unemployment patterns
- labour market trends
- business confidence
