The Scottish economy [October 1977]

David N F Bell, M W Danson, J Duignan, M E Glassford, F X Kirwan, James W. McGilvray, D R F Simpson, Alison A. Wingfield

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    26 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    Recent reductions in the rate of inflation and interest rates, coupled with the movement of the UK balance of payments current account into substantial surplus, suggest that it is now appropriate to consider reflation as a means of lifting the labour market from its current state of depression. However, general measures to stimulate aggregate demand such as reductions in direct or indirect taxation will take some time to effect a rise in employment. The speed of reaction will depend on the extent to which increased incomes are initially saved, on the degree of confidence which employers show in the strength of the upturn and on the amount by which output can be expanded without hiring additional men. These delays are likely to be of such a magnitude that an expansionary budget in November will not affect the trend increase in unemployment until mid-1978.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)8-29
    Number of pages22
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Volume3
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 1977

    Fingerprint

    Employers
    Indirect taxation
    Inflation rate
    Aggregate demand
    Balance of payments
    Labour market
    Unemployment
    Income
    Interest rates
    Confidence
    Current account
    Hiring
    Surplus

    Keywords

    • Scottish economic trends
    • British economic performance
    • economic forecasts
    • economic growth
    • Scottish gross domestic product (GDP)
    • industrial output
    • business confidence
    • labour market trends
    • unemployment patterns

    Cite this

    Bell, D. N. F., Danson, M. W., Duignan, J., Glassford, M. E., Kirwan, F. X., McGilvray, J. W., ... Wingfield, A. A. (1977). The Scottish economy [October 1977]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 3(2), 8-29.
    Bell, David N F ; Danson, M W ; Duignan, J ; Glassford, M E ; Kirwan, F X ; McGilvray, James W. ; Simpson, D R F ; Wingfield, Alison A. / The Scottish economy [October 1977]. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1977 ; Vol. 3, No. 2. pp. 8-29.
    @article{d7a9fc502db04fc0a74a94d5317bae05,
    title = "The Scottish economy [October 1977]",
    abstract = "Recent reductions in the rate of inflation and interest rates, coupled with the movement of the UK balance of payments current account into substantial surplus, suggest that it is now appropriate to consider reflation as a means of lifting the labour market from its current state of depression. However, general measures to stimulate aggregate demand such as reductions in direct or indirect taxation will take some time to effect a rise in employment. The speed of reaction will depend on the extent to which increased incomes are initially saved, on the degree of confidence which employers show in the strength of the upturn and on the amount by which output can be expanded without hiring additional men. These delays are likely to be of such a magnitude that an expansionary budget in November will not affect the trend increase in unemployment until mid-1978.",
    keywords = "Scottish economic trends, British economic performance, economic forecasts, economic growth, Scottish gross domestic product (GDP), industrial output, business confidence, labour market trends, unemployment patterns",
    author = "Bell, {David N F} and Danson, {M W} and J Duignan and Glassford, {M E} and Kirwan, {F X} and McGilvray, {James W.} and Simpson, {D R F} and Wingfield, {Alison A.}",
    year = "1977",
    month = "10",
    language = "English",
    volume = "3",
    pages = "8--29",
    journal = "Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary",
    issn = "2046-5378",
    publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
    number = "2",

    }

    Bell, DNF, Danson, MW, Duignan, J, Glassford, ME, Kirwan, FX, McGilvray, JW, Simpson, DRF & Wingfield, AA 1977, 'The Scottish economy [October 1977]', Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 8-29.

    The Scottish economy [October 1977]. / Bell, David N F; Danson, M W; Duignan, J; Glassford, M E; Kirwan, F X; McGilvray, James W.; Simpson, D R F; Wingfield, Alison A.

    In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 3, No. 2, 10.1977, p. 8-29.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - The Scottish economy [October 1977]

    AU - Bell, David N F

    AU - Danson, M W

    AU - Duignan, J

    AU - Glassford, M E

    AU - Kirwan, F X

    AU - McGilvray, James W.

    AU - Simpson, D R F

    AU - Wingfield, Alison A.

    PY - 1977/10

    Y1 - 1977/10

    N2 - Recent reductions in the rate of inflation and interest rates, coupled with the movement of the UK balance of payments current account into substantial surplus, suggest that it is now appropriate to consider reflation as a means of lifting the labour market from its current state of depression. However, general measures to stimulate aggregate demand such as reductions in direct or indirect taxation will take some time to effect a rise in employment. The speed of reaction will depend on the extent to which increased incomes are initially saved, on the degree of confidence which employers show in the strength of the upturn and on the amount by which output can be expanded without hiring additional men. These delays are likely to be of such a magnitude that an expansionary budget in November will not affect the trend increase in unemployment until mid-1978.

    AB - Recent reductions in the rate of inflation and interest rates, coupled with the movement of the UK balance of payments current account into substantial surplus, suggest that it is now appropriate to consider reflation as a means of lifting the labour market from its current state of depression. However, general measures to stimulate aggregate demand such as reductions in direct or indirect taxation will take some time to effect a rise in employment. The speed of reaction will depend on the extent to which increased incomes are initially saved, on the degree of confidence which employers show in the strength of the upturn and on the amount by which output can be expanded without hiring additional men. These delays are likely to be of such a magnitude that an expansionary budget in November will not affect the trend increase in unemployment until mid-1978.

    KW - Scottish economic trends

    KW - British economic performance

    KW - economic forecasts

    KW - economic growth

    KW - Scottish gross domestic product (GDP)

    KW - industrial output

    KW - business confidence

    KW - labour market trends

    KW - unemployment patterns

    UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

    UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/fraser/

    M3 - Article

    VL - 3

    SP - 8

    EP - 29

    JO - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

    JF - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

    SN - 2046-5378

    IS - 2

    ER -

    Bell DNF, Danson MW, Duignan J, Glassford ME, Kirwan FX, McGilvray JW et al. The Scottish economy [October 1977]. Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1977 Oct;3(2):8-29.