The Scottish economy [October 1975]

During the last quarter, it is clear that the level of economic activity in Scotland, which had hitherto been maintained at a comparatively higher level, moved more into line with the deepening recession in the UK. The improved performance of the Scottish economy during 1974 and early 1975, attributed mainly to the impact of North Sea oil, can be thought to have had two main consequences. First, by the addition of a major growth sector to the Scottish economy, it has narrowed the employment and income differentials between Scotland and the rest of the UK: in the present situation, a major consequence of this is a relative improvement in Scotland's unemployment experience during the present cycle.
Secondly, the expansion of North Sea oil activity, coinciding with the current international recession, has postponed (as well as damped) the impact of that recession on the Scottish economy. However, the countercyclical effects of oil-related expenditure are now less marked, and trends in Scottish output and employment may now be expected to follow the UK pattern.