The Scottish economy [November 1982]

David Simpson, David Bell, Douglas Hamilton, James McGilvray, Iain McNicoll, Lyle Moar, Noreen O'Donnell, Elizabeth Tait, James Walker, Alison Wingfield, David Simpson (Editor)

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    Abstract

    The short-term outlook for the Scottish economy remains fairly pessimistic. Though recent falls in interest rates may give a small filip to consumer demand around Christmas, there are no immediate prospects for an upsurge in industrial output. Import propensities are now so high as to negate most of the beneficial effects of an increase in demand. The forecasts detailed below reflect this increasingly pessimistic view of short-term developments in the Scottish economy. Unemployment, which averaged 352,000 in the third quarter of 1982 could rise to 369,000 thousand by the end of 1983 if present trends continue. With no significant stimulus to demand in the offing, any substantive improvement in labour market conditions is likely to be postponed, at least until 1984.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)6-28
    Number of pages23
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Volume8
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - Nov 1982

    Keywords

    • Scottish economic performance
    • Scottish gross domestic product (GDP)
    • employment patterns
    • industrial output
    • business confidence
    • labour market trends
    • Scotland

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