The Scottish economy [May 1983]

Frank Kirwan, David Bell, Bob Buchanan, Robert Crawford, Frank Harrigan, Anne Jowett, Lyle Moar, James McGilvray, Iain McNicoll, Noreen O'Donnell, David Simpson, Elizabeth Tait, Jim Walker, Alison Wingfield, Frank Kirwan (Editor)

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    Abstract

    As this analysis shows, the short-term outlook for the Scottish economy under present policy is for a moderate, but selective, improvement in output and for a continuing slow deterioration in labour market conditions. Manufacturing production is likely to grow by about 1%-1.5% between second quarter 1983 and second quarter 1984, leaving it still well short of 1979 levels. Productivity growth should continue, particularly in those firms now being able to make more adequate use of their capacity. Overtime hours should pick up, though at a far slower rate than between 1980 and 1982. With service sector employment stabalising and no great change in the labour market supply expected over the next twelve months, the expected rise in unemployment is of the same magnitude as the fall in manufacturing employment. Thus, though there will be some pickup in the output of goods and services from Scotland, the labour market will continue to languish with no substantive improvement likely over the next twelve to eighteen months.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)11-32
    Number of pages22
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Volume8
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - May 1983

    Keywords

    • Scottish economic trends
    • Scottish economic performance
    • Scottish GDP growth
    • industrial output
    • business performance
    • labour market trends
    • unemployment patterns
    • Scotland

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    Kirwan, F., Bell, D., Buchanan, B., Crawford, R., Harrigan, F., Jowett, A., Moar, L., McGilvray, J., McNicoll, I., O'Donnell, N., Simpson, D., Tait, E., Walker, J., Wingfield, A., & Kirwan, F. (Ed.) (1983). The Scottish economy [May 1983]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 8(4), 11-32.