The Scottish economy [June 1992]

Like our forecast of the end to the last recession, our forecast of a slight down-turn in the Scottish economy in the final quarter last year (in terms of the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries, Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) turned out to be, rather unfortunately, confirmed again by the latest official data release. The present forecasting period extends to the third quarter of 1993. In making the Scottish forecasts, the output index series for the UK production industries is used as the exogenous data input. We calculate the UK index for the present forecasting period on the basis of the National Institute's projections. The output equation on which the forecasts are based is re-estimated using the revised and extended official data on the UK and Scottish output series.