The Scottish economy [June 1992]

Jim Love; Brian Ashcroft; Richard Brooks; Paul Draper; Stewart Dunlop; Kevin Leif; Cliff Lockyer; Eleanor Malloy; Mark McFarland; Peter McGregor; Iain McNicoll; Eric McRory; Roger Perman; Jim Stevens; Kim Swales; Ya Ping Yin

The Scottish economy [June 1992]

Jim Love, Brian Ashcroft, Richard Brooks, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Kevin Leif, Cliff Lockyer, Eleanor Malloy, Mark McFarland, Peter McGregor, Iain McNicoll, Eric McRory, Roger Perman, Jim Stevens, Kim Swales, Ya Ping Yin

Economics

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Abstract

Like our forecast of the end to the last recession, our forecast of a slight down-turn in the Scottish economy in the final quarter last year (in terms of the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries, Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) turned out to be, rather unfortunately, confirmed again by the latest official data release. The present forecasting period extends to the third quarter of 1993. In making the Scottish forecasts, the output index series for the UK production industries is used as the exogenous data input. We calculate the UK index for the present forecasting period on the basis of the National Institute's projections. The output equation on which the forecasts are based is re-estimated using the revised and extended official data on the UK and Scottish output series.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	11-51
Number of pages	41
Journal	Quarterly Economic Commentary
Volume	17
Issue number	4
Publication status	Published - Jun 1992

Keywords

economic forecasts
Scottish economy
Scottish economic conditions
Scotland
labour market trends
unemployment patterns
industrial output
business confidence

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "The Scottish economy [June 1992]",

abstract = "Like our forecast of the end to the last recession, our forecast of a slight down-turn in the Scottish economy in the final quarter last year (in terms of the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries, Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) turned out to be, rather unfortunately, confirmed again by the latest official data release. The present forecasting period extends to the third quarter of 1993. In making the Scottish forecasts, the output index series for the UK production industries is used as the exogenous data input. We calculate the UK index for the present forecasting period on the basis of the National Institute's projections. The output equation on which the forecasts are based is re-estimated using the revised and extended official data on the UK and Scottish output series.",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The Scottish economy [June 1992]

AU - Love, Jim

AU - Ashcroft, Brian

AU - Brooks, Richard

AU - Draper, Paul

AU - Dunlop, Stewart

AU - Leif, Kevin

AU - Lockyer, Cliff

AU - Malloy, Eleanor

AU - McFarland, Mark

AU - McGregor, Peter

AU - McNicoll, Iain

AU - McRory, Eric

AU - Perman, Roger

AU - Stevens, Jim

AU - Swales, Kim

AU - Yin, Ya Ping

PY - 1992/6

Y1 - 1992/6

N2 - Like our forecast of the end to the last recession, our forecast of a slight down-turn in the Scottish economy in the final quarter last year (in terms of the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries, Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) turned out to be, rather unfortunately, confirmed again by the latest official data release. The present forecasting period extends to the third quarter of 1993. In making the Scottish forecasts, the output index series for the UK production industries is used as the exogenous data input. We calculate the UK index for the present forecasting period on the basis of the National Institute's projections. The output equation on which the forecasts are based is re-estimated using the revised and extended official data on the UK and Scottish output series.

AB - Like our forecast of the end to the last recession, our forecast of a slight down-turn in the Scottish economy in the final quarter last year (in terms of the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries, Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) turned out to be, rather unfortunately, confirmed again by the latest official data release. The present forecasting period extends to the third quarter of 1993. In making the Scottish forecasts, the output index series for the UK production industries is used as the exogenous data input. We calculate the UK index for the present forecasting period on the basis of the National Institute's projections. The output equation on which the forecasts are based is re-estimated using the revised and extended official data on the UK and Scottish output series.

KW - economic forecasts

KW - Scottish economy

KW - Scottish economic conditions

KW - Scotland

KW - labour market trends

KW - unemployment patterns

KW - industrial output

KW - business confidence

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/fraser/

M3 - Article

SN - 0306-7866

VL - 17

SP - 11

EP - 51

JO - Quarterly Economic Commentary

JF - Quarterly Economic Commentary

IS - 4

ER -

The Scottish economy [June 1992]

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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