The Scottish economy [December 1992]

Mark McFarland, Brian Ashcroft, Richard Brooks, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Tony James, Cliff Lockyer, Jim Love, Eleanor Malloy, Peter McGregor, Eric McRory, Vanessa O'Brien, Jim Stevens, Kim Swales, Ya Ping Yin, Mark McFarland (Editor), Fraser of Allander Institute

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Abstract

In the previous Commentary, we correctly forecasted a further fall in the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Division 1 to 4 of the 1980 SIC) for the second quarter this year. But the extent of the fall was not fully picked up by the forecasting equation. The latest news release (10 November) by the Scottish Office shows a 2.9% fall in output in the second quarter. In the present forecast, we carried out a thorough test for unit roots and co-integration in the expanded time series used in our forecasting equation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)9-48
Number of pages40
JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
Volume18
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1992

Keywords

  • Scottish economic trends
  • economic forecasts
  • Scottish economic output
  • Scottish gross domestic product (GDP)
  • Scotland
  • industrial output
  • unemployment patterns
  • labour market trends
  • business confidence
  • Scottish Chambers' Business Survey

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    McFarland, M., Ashcroft, B., Brooks, R., Draper, P., Dunlop, S., James, T., ... Fraser of Allander Institute (1992). The Scottish economy [December 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 18(2), 9-48.