The Scottish economy [December 1991]

Jim Love; Brian Ashcroft; Neil Dourmashkin; Richard Brooks; Paul Draper; Stewart Dunlop; Eleanor Malloy; Peter McGregor; Iain McNicoll; Mark McFarland; Eric McRory; Roger Perman; Kim Swales; Jim Stevens; Ya Ping Yin; Jim Love; Fraser of Allander Institute

The Scottish economy [December 1991]

Jim Love, Brian Ashcroft, Neil Dourmashkin, Richard Brooks, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Eleanor Malloy, Peter McGregor, Iain McNicoll, Mark McFarland, Eric McRory, Roger Perman, Kim Swales, Jim Stevens, Ya Ping Yin, Jim Love (Editor), Fraser of Allander Institute

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Abstract

This detailed article provides an analysis of key Scottish economic trends based on recent data. The forecast of quarterly movements in the seasonally-adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) is based on the short-term model of the Scottish economy, details of which are contained in the Briefing Paper in the September issue of the Commentary. Note that here the classification of production industries excludes construction but includes SIC Class 13 (oil and gas). As a reminder, the current Scottish output is modelled as driven by the current and past UK outputs, and also by the past Scottish output. In making the Scottish forecasts, the exogenous data on the UK output index for the forecast period are derived from the National Institute's
projections. Since the quarterly forecasts for the UK output beyond the fourth quarter of 1992 are not yet available, the present forecasting period remains the same as that in the last issue. However, the output equation is reestimated using the revised official data on the UK and Scottish output series. Therefore, the difference between the present forecasts and that in the last issue is totally
due to data revision.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	10-55
Number of pages	46
Journal	Quarterly Economic Commentary
Volume	17
Issue number	2
Publication status	Published - Dec 1991

Keywords

Scottish economic trends
economic forecasts
Scottish economic performance
macroeconomic trends
labour market conditions
business confidence
Scottish business activity
unemployment levels
regional economic impact

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "The Scottish economy [December 1991]",

abstract = "This detailed article provides an analysis of key Scottish economic trends based on recent data. The forecast of quarterly movements in the seasonally-adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) is based on the short-term model of the Scottish economy, details of which are contained in the Briefing Paper in the September issue of the Commentary. Note that here the classification of production industries excludes construction but includes SIC Class 13 (oil and gas). As a reminder, the current Scottish output is modelled as driven by the current and past UK outputs, and also by the past Scottish output. In making the Scottish forecasts, the exogenous data on the UK output index for the forecast period are derived from the National Institute'sprojections. Since the quarterly forecasts for the UK output beyond the fourth quarter of 1992 are not yet available, the present forecasting period remains the same as that in the last issue. However, the output equation is reestimated using the revised official data on the UK and Scottish output series. Therefore, the difference between the present forecasts and that in the last issue is totallydue to data revision.",

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author = "Jim Love and Brian Ashcroft and Neil Dourmashkin and Richard Brooks and Paul Draper and Stewart Dunlop and Eleanor Malloy and Peter McGregor and Iain McNicoll and Mark McFarland and Eric McRory and Roger Perman and Kim Swales and Jim Stevens and Yin, {Ya Ping} and Jim Love and {Fraser of Allander Institute}",

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AU - McGregor, Peter

AU - McNicoll, Iain

AU - McFarland, Mark

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AU - Perman, Roger

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AB - This detailed article provides an analysis of key Scottish economic trends based on recent data. The forecast of quarterly movements in the seasonally-adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) is based on the short-term model of the Scottish economy, details of which are contained in the Briefing Paper in the September issue of the Commentary. Note that here the classification of production industries excludes construction but includes SIC Class 13 (oil and gas). As a reminder, the current Scottish output is modelled as driven by the current and past UK outputs, and also by the past Scottish output. In making the Scottish forecasts, the exogenous data on the UK output index for the forecast period are derived from the National Institute'sprojections. Since the quarterly forecasts for the UK output beyond the fourth quarter of 1992 are not yet available, the present forecasting period remains the same as that in the last issue. However, the output equation is reestimated using the revised official data on the UK and Scottish output series. Therefore, the difference between the present forecasts and that in the last issue is totallydue to data revision.

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KW - macroeconomic trends

KW - labour market conditions

KW - business confidence

KW - Scottish business activity

KW - unemployment levels

KW - regional economic impact

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The Scottish economy [December 1991]

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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