The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Raphael Ximenes, Marcos Amaku, Luis Fernandez Lopez, Francisco Antonio Bezzerra Coutinho, Marcelo Nascimento Burattini, David Greenhalgh, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Claudio José Struchiner, Eduardo Massad

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.
Methods: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics.
Results: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.
Conclusions: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
LanguageEnglish
Number of pages9
JournalBMC Infectious Diseases
Volume16
Issue number186
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 29 Apr 2016

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Dengue
Brazil
Game
Stochastic Approximation
System of Differential Equations
Infection
Incidence
History
Time series
Mathematical Model
Calculate
Scenarios
Dependent
Disease Outbreaks
Estimate
Theoretical Models

Keywords

  • dengue
  • mathematical models
  • risk assessment
  • Olympic Games
  • travel medicine

Cite this

Ximenes, Raphael ; Amaku, Marcos ; Lopez, Luis Fernandez ; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezzerra ; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento ; Greenhalgh, David ; Wilder-Smith, Annelies ; Struchiner, Claudio José ; Massad, Eduardo. / The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In: BMC Infectious Diseases. 2016 ; Vol. 16, No. 186.
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abstract = "Background: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.Methods: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.Conclusions: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.",
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Ximenes, R, Amaku, M, Lopez, LF, Coutinho, FAB, Burattini, MN, Greenhalgh, D, Wilder-Smith, A, Struchiner, CJ & Massad, E 2016, 'The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil' BMC Infectious Diseases, vol. 16, no. 186. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z

The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. / Ximenes, Raphael ; Amaku, Marcos; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezzerra; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento; Greenhalgh, David; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Struchiner, Claudio José ; Massad, Eduardo.

In: BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 16, No. 186, 29.04.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

AU - Ximenes, Raphael

AU - Amaku, Marcos

AU - Lopez, Luis Fernandez

AU - Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezzerra

AU - Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento

AU - Greenhalgh, David

AU - Wilder-Smith, Annelies

AU - Struchiner, Claudio José

AU - Massad, Eduardo

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Y1 - 2016/4/29

N2 - Background: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.Methods: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.Conclusions: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.

AB - Background: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.Methods: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.Conclusions: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.

KW - dengue

KW - mathematical models

KW - risk assessment

KW - Olympic Games

KW - travel medicine

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JO - BMC Infectious Diseases

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