The profit of doom. Forecasting excess winter deaths due to the real increase in domestic energy prices

Research output: Book/ReportOther report

Abstract

In 1991 Boardman demonstrated that the UK has 30 000 to 60 000 more deaths between December and March than in the preceding and succeeding four month periods. Although there is some evidence demonstrating a reducing trend in excess winter deaths over the past 15 years the UK still has much higher winter death rates than other countries with similar or more severe climates, implying that it is not outdoor exposure to cold that is the key determinant. Northern Finland - where winter temperatures regularly drop to minus 20OC - has a significantly lower rate of excess winter deaths than London however, Finish dwellings have historically had much higher levels of insulation and whole house central heating is commonplace. In the UK 90% of the excess winter deaths are in the elderly population and are registered under three generic disease headings: ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular and respiratory.
LanguageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 14 Oct 2008

Fingerprint

Winter
Energy prices
Profit
Death rate
Heating
Temperature
Insulation
Climate
Ischemic heart disease

Keywords

  • heating
  • energy
  • housing
  • winter deaths
  • energy prices
  • fuel prices

Cite this

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title = "The profit of doom. Forecasting excess winter deaths due to the real increase in domestic energy prices",
abstract = "In 1991 Boardman demonstrated that the UK has 30 000 to 60 000 more deaths between December and March than in the preceding and succeeding four month periods. Although there is some evidence demonstrating a reducing trend in excess winter deaths over the past 15 years the UK still has much higher winter death rates than other countries with similar or more severe climates, implying that it is not outdoor exposure to cold that is the key determinant. Northern Finland - where winter temperatures regularly drop to minus 20OC - has a significantly lower rate of excess winter deaths than London however, Finish dwellings have historically had much higher levels of insulation and whole house central heating is commonplace. In the UK 90{\%} of the excess winter deaths are in the elderly population and are registered under three generic disease headings: ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular and respiratory.",
keywords = "heating, energy, housing, winter deaths, energy prices, fuel prices",
author = "Stirling Howieson",
note = "Other media coverage, not online: {"}20 000 excess winter deaths due to fuel price hike{"} Comments on research paper predicting 20 000 EWD due to the real increase in domestic energy costs that took place in August 2008. ITV news headline story. 14/10/2008 Scotlands winter death toll to rise, Article on the research paper (The profit of doom) predicting an additional 2000 EWDs in the winter of 2008/09 in Scotland due to the real increases in domestic energy prices. Sunday Times, 09/11/2008",
year = "2008",
month = "10",
day = "14",
language = "English",

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T1 - The profit of doom. Forecasting excess winter deaths due to the real increase in domestic energy prices

AU - Howieson, Stirling

N1 - Other media coverage, not online: "20 000 excess winter deaths due to fuel price hike" Comments on research paper predicting 20 000 EWD due to the real increase in domestic energy costs that took place in August 2008. ITV news headline story. 14/10/2008 Scotlands winter death toll to rise, Article on the research paper (The profit of doom) predicting an additional 2000 EWDs in the winter of 2008/09 in Scotland due to the real increases in domestic energy prices. Sunday Times, 09/11/2008

PY - 2008/10/14

Y1 - 2008/10/14

N2 - In 1991 Boardman demonstrated that the UK has 30 000 to 60 000 more deaths between December and March than in the preceding and succeeding four month periods. Although there is some evidence demonstrating a reducing trend in excess winter deaths over the past 15 years the UK still has much higher winter death rates than other countries with similar or more severe climates, implying that it is not outdoor exposure to cold that is the key determinant. Northern Finland - where winter temperatures regularly drop to minus 20OC - has a significantly lower rate of excess winter deaths than London however, Finish dwellings have historically had much higher levels of insulation and whole house central heating is commonplace. In the UK 90% of the excess winter deaths are in the elderly population and are registered under three generic disease headings: ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular and respiratory.

AB - In 1991 Boardman demonstrated that the UK has 30 000 to 60 000 more deaths between December and March than in the preceding and succeeding four month periods. Although there is some evidence demonstrating a reducing trend in excess winter deaths over the past 15 years the UK still has much higher winter death rates than other countries with similar or more severe climates, implying that it is not outdoor exposure to cold that is the key determinant. Northern Finland - where winter temperatures regularly drop to minus 20OC - has a significantly lower rate of excess winter deaths than London however, Finish dwellings have historically had much higher levels of insulation and whole house central heating is commonplace. In the UK 90% of the excess winter deaths are in the elderly population and are registered under three generic disease headings: ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular and respiratory.

KW - heating

KW - energy

KW - housing

KW - winter deaths

KW - energy prices

KW - fuel prices

UR - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/utilities/3242689/Pensioners-cutting-back-on-heating-risk-death-warns-expert.html

UR - http://www.itv.com/News/newsspecial/Adhoc/Articles/Fuelpovertyarticle/default.html

UR - http://www.itv.com/documents/pdf/Fuel_Poverty_Report.pdf

M3 - Other report

BT - The profit of doom. Forecasting excess winter deaths due to the real increase in domestic energy prices

ER -