The price of oil and the Scottish economy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

There were days in the latter half of 2014 when it seemed as if the price of oil was declining faster than newspapers were able to report it. Published prices were out of date almost before the ink was dry, superseded by successively lower prices, eventually falling to just over $45/barrel. So, we know that as soon as we note that the price of oil today (13th February 2015) is $55.73/barrel, that this will likely be wrong in the very near future [Update: as of 28rd February 2015 it is $62.58/barrel – a rise of over 12% in just ten days]. As an indication of how much the price of oil has fallen, and the rapid pace of this decline, prices in June 2014 were above $110.00/barrel. The decline appeared to have two distinct phases; first, the period to the start of October 2015 when the price fell by just over $10/barrel in three months, prior to a second phase – lasting slightly more than three months - when prices fell by over 50% to $50/barrel. The last time there was such a rapid decline in price was in final half of 2008, at the start of the Great Recession.
LanguageEnglish
Pages41-46
Number of pages6
JournalFraser of Allander Economic Commentary
Volume38
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 4 Mar 2015

Fingerprint

Oil
Great Recession

Keywords

  • oil prices
  • Scottish economy
  • recession

Cite this

@article{ee6919f8625d4acb80d4d95018c84565,
title = "The price of oil and the Scottish economy",
abstract = "There were days in the latter half of 2014 when it seemed as if the price of oil was declining faster than newspapers were able to report it. Published prices were out of date almost before the ink was dry, superseded by successively lower prices, eventually falling to just over $45/barrel. So, we know that as soon as we note that the price of oil today (13th February 2015) is $55.73/barrel, that this will likely be wrong in the very near future [Update: as of 28rd February 2015 it is $62.58/barrel – a rise of over 12{\%} in just ten days]. As an indication of how much the price of oil has fallen, and the rapid pace of this decline, prices in June 2014 were above $110.00/barrel. The decline appeared to have two distinct phases; first, the period to the start of October 2015 when the price fell by just over $10/barrel in three months, prior to a second phase – lasting slightly more than three months - when prices fell by over 50{\%} to $50/barrel. The last time there was such a rapid decline in price was in final half of 2008, at the start of the Great Recession.",
keywords = "oil prices, Scottish economy, recession",
author = "Grant Allan",
year = "2015",
month = "3",
day = "4",
language = "English",
volume = "38",
pages = "41--46",
journal = "Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary",
issn = "2046-5378",
publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
number = "3",

}

The price of oil and the Scottish economy. / Allan, Grant.

In: Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, Vol. 38, No. 3, 04.03.2015, p. 41-46.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The price of oil and the Scottish economy

AU - Allan, Grant

PY - 2015/3/4

Y1 - 2015/3/4

N2 - There were days in the latter half of 2014 when it seemed as if the price of oil was declining faster than newspapers were able to report it. Published prices were out of date almost before the ink was dry, superseded by successively lower prices, eventually falling to just over $45/barrel. So, we know that as soon as we note that the price of oil today (13th February 2015) is $55.73/barrel, that this will likely be wrong in the very near future [Update: as of 28rd February 2015 it is $62.58/barrel – a rise of over 12% in just ten days]. As an indication of how much the price of oil has fallen, and the rapid pace of this decline, prices in June 2014 were above $110.00/barrel. The decline appeared to have two distinct phases; first, the period to the start of October 2015 when the price fell by just over $10/barrel in three months, prior to a second phase – lasting slightly more than three months - when prices fell by over 50% to $50/barrel. The last time there was such a rapid decline in price was in final half of 2008, at the start of the Great Recession.

AB - There were days in the latter half of 2014 when it seemed as if the price of oil was declining faster than newspapers were able to report it. Published prices were out of date almost before the ink was dry, superseded by successively lower prices, eventually falling to just over $45/barrel. So, we know that as soon as we note that the price of oil today (13th February 2015) is $55.73/barrel, that this will likely be wrong in the very near future [Update: as of 28rd February 2015 it is $62.58/barrel – a rise of over 12% in just ten days]. As an indication of how much the price of oil has fallen, and the rapid pace of this decline, prices in June 2014 were above $110.00/barrel. The decline appeared to have two distinct phases; first, the period to the start of October 2015 when the price fell by just over $10/barrel in three months, prior to a second phase – lasting slightly more than three months - when prices fell by over 50% to $50/barrel. The last time there was such a rapid decline in price was in final half of 2008, at the start of the Great Recession.

KW - oil prices

KW - Scottish economy

KW - recession

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/fraser/

M3 - Article

VL - 38

SP - 41

EP - 46

JO - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

T2 - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

JF - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

SN - 2046-5378

IS - 3

ER -