The lagged effect of cold temperature and wind chill on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland

M. Carder, R. McNamee, I.J. Beverland, R. Elton, J.R. Cohen, J. Boyd, R.M. Agius

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121 Citations (Scopus)


Temperature was a significant predictor of mortality with the strongest association observed between temperature and respiratory mortality. There was a non-linear association between mortality and temperature. Mortality increased as temperatures fell throughout the range, but the rate of increase was steeper at temperatures below 11°C. The association between temperature and mortality persisted at lag periods beyond two weeks but the effect size generally decreased with increasing lag. For temperatures below 11°C, a 1°C drop in the daytime mean temperature on any one day was associated with an increase in mortality of 2.9% (95% CI 2.5 to 3.4), 3.4% (95% CI 2.6 to 4.1), 4.8% (95% CI 3.5 to 6.2) and 1.7% (95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) over the following month for all cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, and 'other' cause mortality respectively. The effect of temperature on mortality was not observed to be significantly modified by season. There was little indication that 'wind chill' temperature was a better predictor of mortality than 'dry bulb' temperature.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)702-710
Number of pages8
JournalOccupational and Environmental Medicine
Publication statusPublished - 2005


  • temperature
  • wind chill
  • cardiorespiratory mortality
  • particulate air pollution


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