The Just Transition Challenge: Avoiding Carbon Leakage and Jobs Off-Shoring in Decarbonising International Supply Chains

Karen Turner, Antonios Katris, Frans P. de Vries, Ragne Low

Research output: Book/ReportOther report

Abstract

Industrial decarbonisation is a major challenge in terms of both emissions reduction and the ‘just transition’ element of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It raises issues of potential carbon leakage and associated offshoring of jobs and economic value (GDP) if carbon reduction policies impact the location decisions of industry. We use economic multiplier metrics to help quantify the extent of these potential displacement effects. Focussing on cement production as a particular decarbonisation challenge, we demonstrate that displacement of currently EU-based production activity could potentially lead to reductions in domestic jobs and GDP, combined with a net increase in global CO2 emissions. Our key conclusion is that a strong argument exists to address the industrial decarbonisation challenge where emissions are currently located. The ‘just transition’ element of the Paris agreement emphasises the need to retain and grow jobs and GDP whilst meeting climate targets in the long term. This will always be a preferable outcome over jobs off-shoring/GDP loss and not meeting targets in the short and long term.
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Number of pages5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 Nov 2018

Fingerprint

Decarbonization
Gross Domestic Product
Supply chains
leakage
Carbon
carbon
transition element
Economics
location decision
Cements
economics
cement
industry
Industry
climate

Keywords

  • industrial decarbonisation
  • just transition
  • carbon leakage
  • input-output multiplier

Cite this

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title = "The Just Transition Challenge: Avoiding Carbon Leakage and Jobs Off-Shoring in Decarbonising International Supply Chains",
abstract = "Industrial decarbonisation is a major challenge in terms of both emissions reduction and the ‘just transition’ element of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It raises issues of potential carbon leakage and associated offshoring of jobs and economic value (GDP) if carbon reduction policies impact the location decisions of industry. We use economic multiplier metrics to help quantify the extent of these potential displacement effects. Focussing on cement production as a particular decarbonisation challenge, we demonstrate that displacement of currently EU-based production activity could potentially lead to reductions in domestic jobs and GDP, combined with a net increase in global CO2 emissions. Our key conclusion is that a strong argument exists to address the industrial decarbonisation challenge where emissions are currently located. The ‘just transition’ element of the Paris agreement emphasises the need to retain and grow jobs and GDP whilst meeting climate targets in the long term. This will always be a preferable outcome over jobs off-shoring/GDP loss and not meeting targets in the short and long term.",
keywords = "industrial decarbonisation, just transition, carbon leakage, input-output multiplier",
author = "Karen Turner and Antonios Katris and {de Vries}, {Frans P.} and Ragne Low",
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year = "2018",
month = "11",
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The Just Transition Challenge : Avoiding Carbon Leakage and Jobs Off-Shoring in Decarbonising International Supply Chains. / Turner, Karen; Katris, Antonios; de Vries, Frans P.; Low, Ragne.

Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2018. 5 p.

Research output: Book/ReportOther report

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T2 - Avoiding Carbon Leakage and Jobs Off-Shoring in Decarbonising International Supply Chains

AU - Turner, Karen

AU - Katris, Antonios

AU - de Vries, Frans P.

AU - Low, Ragne

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AB - Industrial decarbonisation is a major challenge in terms of both emissions reduction and the ‘just transition’ element of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It raises issues of potential carbon leakage and associated offshoring of jobs and economic value (GDP) if carbon reduction policies impact the location decisions of industry. We use economic multiplier metrics to help quantify the extent of these potential displacement effects. Focussing on cement production as a particular decarbonisation challenge, we demonstrate that displacement of currently EU-based production activity could potentially lead to reductions in domestic jobs and GDP, combined with a net increase in global CO2 emissions. Our key conclusion is that a strong argument exists to address the industrial decarbonisation challenge where emissions are currently located. The ‘just transition’ element of the Paris agreement emphasises the need to retain and grow jobs and GDP whilst meeting climate targets in the long term. This will always be a preferable outcome over jobs off-shoring/GDP loss and not meeting targets in the short and long term.

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