The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?

Geoffroy Duparc-Portier; Gioele Figus

doi:10.1080/00343404.2021.1994547

The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?

Geoffroy Duparc-Portier, Gioele Figus

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

69 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

From the 1 January 2021 the new Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). These rules imply divergence between trade arrangements in NI and GB creating an unprecedented situation where trade frictions arise between two regions of the same country. In this paper we use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of NI firms to substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-14
Number of pages	14
Journal	Regional Studies
Early online date	22 Nov 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1994547
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 22 Nov 2021

Keywords

Brexit
Northern Ireland Protocol
regional trade
CGE
European Union
European trade

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10.1080/00343404.2021.1994547Licence: CC BY 4.0

Duparc-Potier-Figus-RS-2021-Northern-Ireland-Protocol-can-northern-ireland-enjoy-the-best-of-both-worldsFinal published version, 4.54 MBLicence: CC BY 4.0

Cite this

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title = "The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?",

abstract = "From the 1 January 2021 the new Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI{\textquoteright}s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). These rules imply divergence between trade arrangements in NI and GB creating an unprecedented situation where trade frictions arise between two regions of the same country. In this paper we use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of NI firms to substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.",

keywords = "Brexit, Northern Ireland Protocol, regional trade, CGE, European Union, European trade",

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PY - 2021/11/22

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N2 - From the 1 January 2021 the new Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). These rules imply divergence between trade arrangements in NI and GB creating an unprecedented situation where trade frictions arise between two regions of the same country. In this paper we use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of NI firms to substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.

AB - From the 1 January 2021 the new Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). These rules imply divergence between trade arrangements in NI and GB creating an unprecedented situation where trade frictions arise between two regions of the same country. In this paper we use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of NI firms to substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.

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The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?

Abstract

Keywords

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Data for: "The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?"

What are the economic implications of the Windsor Framework?

New Brexit deal will be better for Northern Ireland's economy than the protocol, research suggests

Economic Commentary [December 2021]

Cite this

The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Datasets

Data for: "The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?"

Research output

What are the economic implications of the Windsor Framework?

New Brexit deal will be better for Northern Ireland's economy than the protocol, research suggests

Economic Commentary [December 2021]

Cite this