The Impact of Population Ageing on Public Debt: a Panel Analysis for Eighteen European Countries

Nicolas Afflatet

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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Abstract

Population ageing is one of the major long-term challenges industrialized countries face. Forecasts predict that public debt is going to rise sharply for most countries due to population ageing. However, until now there has been little research on how population ageing already affects public debt. Based on a panel data analysis for 18 European countries it is shown that there is only little empirical evidence for an impact until 2015. This does certainly not mean that it will not have an effect on public debt in the future. Governments are well-advised to benefit from the breathing space the still moderate total dependency ratio offers to adapt their social security systems.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Pages1-22
Number of pages22
Volume16
Publication statusPublished - 15 Dec 2016

Keywords

  • population ageing
  • public debt
  • social security systems
  • demographic dividend

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