The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision [poster & e-slides]

Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP’s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.