The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision

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Abstract

Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP’s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.
Original languageEnglish
Pages11481
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 12 Jun 2023
Event27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2023) - Rome, Rome, Italy
Duration: 12 Jun 202315 Jun 2023
http://www.cired2023.org

Conference

Conference27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2023)
Country/TerritoryItaly
CityRome
Period12/06/2315/06/23
Internet address

Keywords

  • VPP
  • forecasting
  • performance assessment
  • power markets
  • virtual power plants

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