The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision

Gary Howorth; Ivana Kockar; Paul Tuohy; Graeme Flett; John Bingham

The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision

Gary Howorth, Ivana Kockar, Paul Tuohy, Graeme Flett, John Bingham

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

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Abstract

Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP’s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.

Original language	English
Pages	11481
Number of pages	5
Publication status	Published - 12 Jun 2023
Event	27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2023) - Rome, Rome, Italy Duration: 12 Jun 2023 → 15 Jun 2023 http://www.cired2023.org

Conference

Conference	27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2023)
Country/Territory	Italy
City	Rome
Period	12/06/23 → 15/06/23
Internet address	http://www.cired2023.org

Keywords

VPP
forecasting
performance assessment
power markets
virtual power plants

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

Howorth-etal-CIRED-2023-forecasting-accuracy-on-the-economic-performance-of-flexibility-provision-slidesAccepted author manuscript, 1.33 MBLicence: Strath_1
Howorth-etal-CIRED-2023-forecasting-accuracy-on-the-economic-performance-of-flexibility-provisionFinal published version, 1.06 MBLicence: Strath_1

Cite this

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abstract = "Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP{\textquoteright}s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.",

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T1 - The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision

AU - Howorth, Gary

AU - Kockar, Ivana

AU - Tuohy, Paul

AU - Flett, Graeme

AU - Bingham, John

PY - 2023/6/12

Y1 - 2023/6/12

N2 - Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP’s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.

AB - Aggregation by Virtual Power Plants (VPP) to provide flexibility to distribution and transmission networks is seen as an important element in the transition to Net-zero. This paper presents work carried out in the SIES 2022 ERA-Net project, which is investigating in detail the possible provision of flexibility by different technologies but thorough a lens of different business models. Forecasting is an important element of a VPP’s functionality and to its commercial success. Forecasting errors are reviewed using real project data and used to simulate an optimisation of project assets using both actual and forecast data, allowing a quantification of the effects of forecasting errors on VPP performance.

KW - VPP

KW - forecasting

KW - performance assessment

KW - power markets

KW - virtual power plants

UR - https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/85782/

M3 - Paper

SP - 11481

T2 - 27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2023)

Y2 - 12 June 2023 through 15 June 2023

ER -

The impact of forecasting accuracy on the economic performance of flexibility provision

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

SIES 2022: Smart Integrated Energy Systems: Enhanced Virtual Power Plant VPP+ Energy Pool Intergration for Local and Regional Resistance