The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Ciara V. McCarthy; Oscar O’Mara; Edwin van Leeuwen; Katharine Sherratt; Kaja Abbas; Kerry Lm Wong; Katherine E. Atkins; Rachel Lowe; Sophie R. Meakin; Nicholas G. Davies; Timothy W. Russell; Kathleen O’Reilly; Stéphane Hué; Emilie Finch; C. Julian Villabona-Arenas; W. John Edmunds; Yalda Jafari; Damien C. Tully; Nikos I. Bosse; Carl A.B. Pearson; David Hodgson; Adam J. Kucharski; Graham Medley; Yang Liu; Simon R. Procter; William Waites; Sam Abbott; Rosanna C. Barnard; Fiona Yueqian Sun; Hamish P. Gibbs; Rosalind M. Eggo; Lloyd A.C. Chapman; Stefan Flasche; Akira Endo; Paul Mee; James D. Munday; Mihaly Koltai; Amy Gimma; Christopher I. Jarvis; Matthew Quaife; Samuel Clifford; Sebastian Funk; Kiesha Prem; Gwenan M. Knight; Rachael Pung; Oliver Brady; Billy J. Quilty; Mark Jit; Frank Sandmann

doi:10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Ciara V. McCarthy^*, Oscar O’Mara, Edwin van Leeuwen, Katharine Sherratt, Kaja Abbas, Kerry Lm Wong, Katherine E. Atkins, Rachel Lowe, Sophie R. Meakin, Nicholas G. Davies, Timothy W. Russell, Kathleen O’Reilly, Stéphane Hué, Emilie Finch, C. Julian Villabona-Arenas, W. John Edmunds, Yalda Jafari, Damien C. Tully, Nikos I. BosseCarl A.B. Pearson, David Hodgson, Adam J. Kucharski, Graham Medley, Yang Liu, Simon R. Procter, William Waites, Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Fiona Yueqian Sun, Hamish P. Gibbs, Rosalind M. Eggo, Lloyd A.C. Chapman, Stefan Flasche, Akira Endo, Paul Mee, James D. Munday, Mihaly Koltai, Amy Gimma, Christopher I. Jarvis, Matthew Quaife, Samuel Clifford, Sebastian Funk, Kiesha Prem, Gwenan M. Knight, Rachael Pung, Oliver Brady, Billy J. Quilty, Mark Jit, Frank Sandmann

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

22 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Background: High incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated and the wider community. Methods: We used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model of a local prison in England and Wales. Two-dose vaccination strategies included no vaccination, vaccination of all individuals who are incarcerated and/or staff, and an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified in terms of COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and deaths. Results: Compared to no vaccination, vaccinating all people living and working in prison reduced cases, QALY loss and deaths over a one-year period by 41%, 32% and 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until the start of an outbreak, the impact was negligible. Vaccinating individuals who are incarcerated and staff over 50 years old averted one death for every 104 vaccination courses administered. All-staff-only strategies reduced cases by up to 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 to 90% among those who are incarcerated reduced cases by around 30 percentage points. Conclusions: The impact of vaccination in prison settings was highly dependent on early and rapid vaccine delivery. If administered to both those living and working in prison prior to an outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in prison settings.

Original language	English
Article number	1003
Number of pages	17
Journal	BMC Public Health
Volume	22
Issue number	1
Early online date	18 May 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4
Publication status	Published - 31 Dec 2022

Funding

Funding for the CMMID COVID-19 Working Group is as follows: KS: Wellcome Trust (210,758/Z/18/Z); KA: BMGF (INV-016832; OPP1157270); KLM: European Commission (EpiPose 101,003,688); KEA: European Research Council Starting Grant (Action number 757688); RL: Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship; SRM: Wellcome Trust (grant: 210,758/Z/18/Z); NGD: NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation (NIHR200929); UK MRC (MC_PC_19065); TWR: Wellcome Trust (grant: 206,250/Z/17/Z); KO’R: B&MGF (OPP1191821); EF: MRC (grant number MR/N013638/1); CJVA: European Research Council Starting Grant (Action number 757688); WJE: European Commission (EpiPose 101,003,688), NIHR (NIHR200908, MRC: MC_PC_19065,); YJ: NIHR/UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative; NIB: Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908); CABP: B&MGF NTD Modelling Consortium (OPP1184344), FCDO/Wellcome Trust: Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus research programme (221,303/Z/20/Z); DH: National Institutes of Health (Grant: 1R01AI141534-01A1); AJK: Wellcome Trust (grant: 206,250/Z/17/Z), NIHR (NIHR200908); GFM: B&MGF NTD Modelling Consortium (OPP1184344); YL: B&MGF (INV-003174), NIHR (16/137/109), European Commission (101,003,688), UK MRC (MC_PC_19065); SRP: B&MGF (INV-016832); WW: MRC (grant: MR/V027956/1); SA: Wellcome Trust (grant: 210,758/Z/18/Z); RCB: European Commission (EpiPose 101,003,688); FYS: NIHR EPIC grant (16/137/109); HPG: EDCTP2: RIA2020EF-2983-CSIGN, UK DHSC/UK Aid/NIHR: PR-OD-1017–20,001; RME: HDR UK (grant;: MR/S003975/1, UK MRC (grant: MC_PC_19065), NIHR (grant: NIHR200908); LACC: NIHR (NIHR200908); SFlasche: Wellcome Trust (grant: 208,812/Z/17/Z); AE: The Nakajima Foundation; PM: CADDE (MR/S0195/1 & FAPESP 18/14389–0); JDM: Wellcome Trust (grant: 210,758/Z/18/Z); MK: Wellcome Trust (grant: 221,303/Z/20/Z); AG: European Commission (EpiPose 101,003,688); CIJ: Global Challenges Research Fund (ES/P010873/1); MQ: ERC Starting Grant (Action Number #757,699), B&MGF (INV-001754); SC: Wellcome Trust (grant: 208,812/Z/17/Z), UK MRC (grant: MC_PC_19065); SFunk: Wellcome Trust (grant: 210,758/Z/18/Z); KP: B&MGF (INV-003174), European Commission (101,003,688); GMK: UK MRC (grant: MR/P014658/1); RP: Singapore Ministry of Health; OJB: Wellcome Trust (grant: 206,471/Z/17/Z); BJQ: NIHR (16/137/109), NIHR (16/136/46), B&MGF (OPP1139859). CVM was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation, a partnership between UKHSA Health Security Agency and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (grant code HPRU-2019-NIHR200929). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR, UK Health Security Agency or the Department of Health and Social Care. EvL was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, a partnership between UK HSA, Imperial College London, and LSHTM (grant number NIHR200908) and by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (101003688).

Keywords

Covid-19
mathematical model
prisons
public Health
vaccination

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4Licence: CC BY 4.0

McCarthy-etal-BMCPH-2022-The-impact-of-COVID-19-vaccination-in-prisons-in-England-and-WalesFinal published version, 5.53 MBLicence: CC BY 4.0

Cite this

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, McCarthy, C. V., O’Mara, O., van Leeuwen, E., Sherratt, K., Abbas, K., Wong, K. L., Atkins, K. E., Lowe, R., Meakin, S. R., Davies, N. G., Russell, T. W., O’Reilly, K., Hué, S., Finch, E., Villabona-Arenas, C. J., Edmunds, W. J., Jafari, Y., Tully, D. C., ... Sandmann, F. (2022). The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model. BMC Public Health, 22(1), Article 1003. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

@article{093f4414ba0b42539189ffe38c833ff2,

title = "The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model",

abstract = "Background: High incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated and the wider community. Methods: We used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model of a local prison in England and Wales. Two-dose vaccination strategies included no vaccination, vaccination of all individuals who are incarcerated and/or staff, and an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified in terms of COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and deaths. Results: Compared to no vaccination, vaccinating all people living and working in prison reduced cases, QALY loss and deaths over a one-year period by 41%, 32% and 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until the start of an outbreak, the impact was negligible. Vaccinating individuals who are incarcerated and staff over 50 years old averted one death for every 104 vaccination courses administered. All-staff-only strategies reduced cases by up to 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 to 90% among those who are incarcerated reduced cases by around 30 percentage points. Conclusions: The impact of vaccination in prison settings was highly dependent on early and rapid vaccine delivery. If administered to both those living and working in prison prior to an outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in prison settings.",

keywords = "Covid-19, mathematical model, prisons, public Health, vaccination",

author = "{CMMID COVID-19 Working Group} and McCarthy, {Ciara V.} and Oscar O{\textquoteright}Mara and {van Leeuwen}, Edwin and Katharine Sherratt and Kaja Abbas and Wong, {Kerry Lm} and Atkins, {Katherine E.} and Rachel Lowe and Meakin, {Sophie R.} and Davies, {Nicholas G.} and Russell, {Timothy W.} and Kathleen O{\textquoteright}Reilly and St{\'e}phane Hu{\'e} and Emilie Finch and Villabona-Arenas, {C. Julian} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Yalda Jafari and Tully, {Damien C.} and Bosse, {Nikos I.} and Pearson, {Carl A.B.} and David Hodgson and Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Graham Medley and Yang Liu and Procter, {Simon R.} and William Waites and Sam Abbott and Barnard, {Rosanna C.} and Sun, {Fiona Yueqian} and Gibbs, {Hamish P.} and Eggo, {Rosalind M.} and Chapman, {Lloyd A.C.} and Stefan Flasche and Akira Endo and Paul Mee and Munday, {James D.} and Mihaly Koltai and Amy Gimma and Jarvis, {Christopher I.} and Matthew Quaife and Samuel Clifford and Sebastian Funk and Kiesha Prem and Knight, {Gwenan M.} and Rachael Pung and Oliver Brady and Quilty, {Billy J.} and Mark Jit and Frank Sandmann",

year = "2022",

month = dec,

day = "31",

doi = "10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4",

language = "English",

volume = "22",

journal = "BMC Public Health",

issn = "1471-2458",

number = "1",

}

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, McCarthy, CV, O’Mara, O, van Leeuwen, E, Sherratt, K, Abbas, K, Wong, KL, Atkins, KE, Lowe, R, Meakin, SR, Davies, NG, Russell, TW, O’Reilly, K, Hué, S, Finch, E, Villabona-Arenas, CJ, Edmunds, WJ, Jafari, Y, Tully, DC, Bosse, NI, Pearson, CAB, Hodgson, D, Kucharski, AJ, Medley, G, Liu, Y, Procter, SR, Waites, W, Abbott, S, Barnard, RC, Sun, FY, Gibbs, HP, Eggo, RM, Chapman, LAC, Flasche, S, Endo, A, Mee, P, Munday, JD, Koltai, M, Gimma, A, Jarvis, CI, Quaife, M, Clifford, S, Funk, S, Prem, K, Knight, GM, Pung, R, Brady, O, Quilty, BJ, Jit, M & Sandmann, F 2022, 'The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model', BMC Public Health, vol. 22, no. 1, 1003. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales

T2 - a metapopulation model

AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

AU - McCarthy, Ciara V.

AU - O’Mara, Oscar

AU - van Leeuwen, Edwin

AU - Sherratt, Katharine

AU - Abbas, Kaja

AU - Wong, Kerry Lm

AU - Atkins, Katherine E.

AU - Lowe, Rachel

AU - Meakin, Sophie R.

AU - Davies, Nicholas G.

AU - Russell, Timothy W.

AU - O’Reilly, Kathleen

AU - Hué, Stéphane

AU - Finch, Emilie

AU - Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Jafari, Yalda

AU - Tully, Damien C.

AU - Bosse, Nikos I.

AU - Pearson, Carl A.B.

AU - Hodgson, David

AU - Kucharski, Adam J.

AU - Medley, Graham

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Procter, Simon R.

AU - Waites, William

AU - Abbott, Sam

AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.

AU - Sun, Fiona Yueqian

AU - Gibbs, Hamish P.

AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.

AU - Chapman, Lloyd A.C.

AU - Flasche, Stefan

AU - Endo, Akira

AU - Mee, Paul

AU - Munday, James D.

AU - Koltai, Mihaly

AU - Gimma, Amy

AU - Jarvis, Christopher I.

AU - Quaife, Matthew

AU - Clifford, Samuel

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Prem, Kiesha

AU - Knight, Gwenan M.

AU - Pung, Rachael

AU - Brady, Oliver

AU - Quilty, Billy J.

AU - Jit, Mark

AU - Sandmann, Frank

PY - 2022/12/31

Y1 - 2022/12/31

N2 - Background: High incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated and the wider community. Methods: We used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model of a local prison in England and Wales. Two-dose vaccination strategies included no vaccination, vaccination of all individuals who are incarcerated and/or staff, and an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified in terms of COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and deaths. Results: Compared to no vaccination, vaccinating all people living and working in prison reduced cases, QALY loss and deaths over a one-year period by 41%, 32% and 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until the start of an outbreak, the impact was negligible. Vaccinating individuals who are incarcerated and staff over 50 years old averted one death for every 104 vaccination courses administered. All-staff-only strategies reduced cases by up to 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 to 90% among those who are incarcerated reduced cases by around 30 percentage points. Conclusions: The impact of vaccination in prison settings was highly dependent on early and rapid vaccine delivery. If administered to both those living and working in prison prior to an outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in prison settings.

AB - Background: High incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated and the wider community. Methods: We used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model of a local prison in England and Wales. Two-dose vaccination strategies included no vaccination, vaccination of all individuals who are incarcerated and/or staff, and an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified in terms of COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and deaths. Results: Compared to no vaccination, vaccinating all people living and working in prison reduced cases, QALY loss and deaths over a one-year period by 41%, 32% and 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until the start of an outbreak, the impact was negligible. Vaccinating individuals who are incarcerated and staff over 50 years old averted one death for every 104 vaccination courses administered. All-staff-only strategies reduced cases by up to 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 to 90% among those who are incarcerated reduced cases by around 30 percentage points. Conclusions: The impact of vaccination in prison settings was highly dependent on early and rapid vaccine delivery. If administered to both those living and working in prison prior to an outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in prison settings.

KW - Covid-19

KW - mathematical model

KW - prisons

KW - public Health

KW - vaccination

U2 - 10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

DO - 10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

M3 - Article

C2 - 35585575

AN - SCOPUS:85130300849

SN - 1471-2458

VL - 22

JO - BMC Public Health

JF - BMC Public Health

IS - 1

M1 - 1003

ER -

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this