TY - JOUR
T1 - The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries
AU - Speirs, Jamie
AU - Contestabile, Marcello
AU - Houari, Yassine
AU - Gross, Robert
N1 - © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Jamie Speirs, Marcello Contestabile, Yassine Houari, Robert Gross, The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 35, 2014, Pages 183-193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.018
PY - 2014/7/1
Y1 - 2014/7/1
N2 - Electric vehicles using lithium batteries could significantly reduce the emissions associated with road vehicle transport. However, the future availability of lithium is uncertain, and the feasibility of manufacturing lithium batteries at sufficient scale has been questioned. The levels of lithium demand growth implied by electric vehicle deployment scenarios is significant, particularly where scenarios are consistent with global GHG reduction targets. This paper examines the question of future lithium availability for the manufacturing of lithium batteries for electric vehicles. In this paper we first examine some of the existing literature in this area, highlighting the levels of future lithium demand previously considered and pointing to the variables that give rise to the range of outcomes in these assessments. We then investigate the ways in which lithium availability is calculated in the literature based on both lithium demand from electric vehicles and lithium supply from both brines and ore. This paper particularly focuses on the key variables needed to make an assessment of future lithium availability. On the demand side, these variables include future market size of electric vehicles, their average battery capacity and the material intensity of the batteries. The key supply variables include global reserve and resource estimates, forecast production and recyclability. We found that the literature informing assumptions regarding the key variables is characterised by significant uncertainty. This uncertainty gives rise to a wide range of estimates for the future demand for lithium based on scenarios consistent with as 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050 at between 184,000 and 989,000 t of lithium per year in 2050. However, lithium production is forecast to grow to between 75,000 and 110,000 t per year by 2020. Under this rate of production growth, it is plausible that lithium supply will meet increasing lithium demand over the coming decades to 2050.
AB - Electric vehicles using lithium batteries could significantly reduce the emissions associated with road vehicle transport. However, the future availability of lithium is uncertain, and the feasibility of manufacturing lithium batteries at sufficient scale has been questioned. The levels of lithium demand growth implied by electric vehicle deployment scenarios is significant, particularly where scenarios are consistent with global GHG reduction targets. This paper examines the question of future lithium availability for the manufacturing of lithium batteries for electric vehicles. In this paper we first examine some of the existing literature in this area, highlighting the levels of future lithium demand previously considered and pointing to the variables that give rise to the range of outcomes in these assessments. We then investigate the ways in which lithium availability is calculated in the literature based on both lithium demand from electric vehicles and lithium supply from both brines and ore. This paper particularly focuses on the key variables needed to make an assessment of future lithium availability. On the demand side, these variables include future market size of electric vehicles, their average battery capacity and the material intensity of the batteries. The key supply variables include global reserve and resource estimates, forecast production and recyclability. We found that the literature informing assumptions regarding the key variables is characterised by significant uncertainty. This uncertainty gives rise to a wide range of estimates for the future demand for lithium based on scenarios consistent with as 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050 at between 184,000 and 989,000 t of lithium per year in 2050. However, lithium production is forecast to grow to between 75,000 and 110,000 t per year by 2020. Under this rate of production growth, it is plausible that lithium supply will meet increasing lithium demand over the coming decades to 2050.
KW - batteries
KW - electric vehicles lithium availability
KW - Li-ion
KW - electric vehicles
KW - greenhouse gases
KW - manufacture
KW - solar cells
KW - uncertainty analysis
KW - battery capacity
KW - demand growth
KW - deployment scenarios
KW - electric vehicle batteries
KW - GHG reductions
KW - global emissions
KW - lithium production
KW - rate of productions
KW - lithium-ion batteries
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84899434699&doi=10.1016%2fj.rser.2014.04.018&partnerID=40&md5=8acb82ced883cfe8b3ae667b2542bfd2
U2 - 10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.018
DO - 10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.018
M3 - Article
SN - 1364-0321
VL - 35
SP - 183
EP - 193
JO - Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev
JF - Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev
ER -
