The experience curve effect on renewable energy penetration

The experience curve effect has always challenged technology-related decisions. In the electricity sector, new renewable electricity generation technologies have shown a considerably high learning rate up to now, which could differentiate the profitability of energy generation technologies in the near future. The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that the Experience Curve of the renewable energy technologies may have on the orders for new electricity generation technologies and therefore, on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The official renewable energy generation targets are considered as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations. Three scenarios of learning rates have been applied, to examine the experience curve effect on renewable energy penetration. The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and a linear programming method is applied, in order to come up with the optimal generating mix that minimizes electricity generation cost, while satisfying the national emissions reduction targets. In addition, two scenarios for future emission allowance prices are considered, in order to examine the effect of changes in this very volatile parameter. Furthermore, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more profitable than conventional fuel electricity generation.