The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010

Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, Abraham Diskin, Aaron M. Houck, Renan Levine, Thomas J. Scotto, David B. Sparks

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

The 2010 elections in the United Kingdom provided voters with numerous and diverse opportunities to reason strategically. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems)-traditionally finishing a distant third in terms of seats in Parliament-vied with labour to be the principal competition to the Conservatives, who failed to win a majority of seats, creating a rare case of what the British call a hung parliament. These conditions varied across constituencies at the district level, and we exploit this variation to study the incidence of "tactical" voting. But the national outcome also presented strategic considerations for voters, and the conditions varied to some extent over the course of the campaign, giving voters interviewed at different times different sets of national considerations for tactical voting. This presents us with the opportunity to investigate how both local and national considerations may shape strategic reasoning among voters and relate to each other and to the final choices of voters on Election Day.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe Many Faces of Strategic Voting
Subtitle of host publicationTactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World
EditorsLaura B. Stephenson, John H. Aldrich, André Blais
Place of PublicationAnn Arbor, MI.
Chapter2
Pages28-60
Number of pages33
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Dec 2018

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Keywords

  • UK elections
  • hung parliament
  • tactical voting
  • strategic reasoning

Cite this

Abramson, P. R., Aldrich, J. H., Diskin, A., Houck, A. M., Levine, R., Scotto, T. J., & Sparks, D. B. (2018). The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010. In L. B. Stephenson, J. H. Aldrich, & A. Blais (Eds.), The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World (pp. 28-60). Ann Arbor, MI.. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9946117
Abramson, Paul R. ; Aldrich, John H. ; Diskin, Abraham ; Houck, Aaron M. ; Levine, Renan ; Scotto, Thomas J. ; Sparks, David B. / The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010. The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World. editor / Laura B. Stephenson ; John H. Aldrich ; André Blais. Ann Arbor, MI., 2018. pp. 28-60
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Abramson, PR, Aldrich, JH, Diskin, A, Houck, AM, Levine, R, Scotto, TJ & Sparks, DB 2018, The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010. in LB Stephenson, JH Aldrich & A Blais (eds), The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World. Ann Arbor, MI., pp. 28-60. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9946117

The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010. / Abramson, Paul R.; Aldrich, John H.; Diskin, Abraham; Houck, Aaron M.; Levine, Renan; Scotto, Thomas J.; Sparks, David B.

The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World. ed. / Laura B. Stephenson; John H. Aldrich; André Blais. Ann Arbor, MI., 2018. p. 28-60.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

TY - CHAP

T1 - The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010

AU - Abramson, Paul R.

AU - Aldrich, John H.

AU - Diskin, Abraham

AU - Houck, Aaron M.

AU - Levine, Renan

AU - Scotto, Thomas J.

AU - Sparks, David B.

PY - 2018/12/30

Y1 - 2018/12/30

N2 - The 2010 elections in the United Kingdom provided voters with numerous and diverse opportunities to reason strategically. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems)-traditionally finishing a distant third in terms of seats in Parliament-vied with labour to be the principal competition to the Conservatives, who failed to win a majority of seats, creating a rare case of what the British call a hung parliament. These conditions varied across constituencies at the district level, and we exploit this variation to study the incidence of "tactical" voting. But the national outcome also presented strategic considerations for voters, and the conditions varied to some extent over the course of the campaign, giving voters interviewed at different times different sets of national considerations for tactical voting. This presents us with the opportunity to investigate how both local and national considerations may shape strategic reasoning among voters and relate to each other and to the final choices of voters on Election Day.

AB - The 2010 elections in the United Kingdom provided voters with numerous and diverse opportunities to reason strategically. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems)-traditionally finishing a distant third in terms of seats in Parliament-vied with labour to be the principal competition to the Conservatives, who failed to win a majority of seats, creating a rare case of what the British call a hung parliament. These conditions varied across constituencies at the district level, and we exploit this variation to study the incidence of "tactical" voting. But the national outcome also presented strategic considerations for voters, and the conditions varied to some extent over the course of the campaign, giving voters interviewed at different times different sets of national considerations for tactical voting. This presents us with the opportunity to investigate how both local and national considerations may shape strategic reasoning among voters and relate to each other and to the final choices of voters on Election Day.

KW - UK elections

KW - hung parliament

KW - tactical voting

KW - strategic reasoning

UR - https://www.press.umich.edu/

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BT - The Many Faces of Strategic Voting

A2 - Stephenson, Laura B.

A2 - Aldrich, John H.

A2 - Blais, André

CY - Ann Arbor, MI.

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Abramson PR, Aldrich JH, Diskin A, Houck AM, Levine R, Scotto TJ et al. The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010. In Stephenson LB, Aldrich JH, Blais A, editors, The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World. Ann Arbor, MI. 2018. p. 28-60 https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9946117