The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom

Azra C Ghani, Marc Baguelin, Jamie T Griffin, Stefan Flasche, Richard Pebody, Albert Jan Van Hoek, Simon Cauchemez, Ian M Hall, Christl A Donnelly, Chris Robertson, Michael T White, Iain Barrass, Christophe Fraser, Alison Bermingham, James Truscott, Joanna Ellis, Helen E Jenkins, George Kafatos, Tini Garske, Ross HarrisJim McMenamin, Colin Hawkins, Nick Phin, André Charlett, Maria Zambon, W. John Edmunds, Mike Catchpole, Steve Leach, Peter J White, Neil M Ferguson, Ben S Cooper

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

80 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages19
JournalPLoS Currents
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jun 2010

Keywords

  • H1N1pdm influenza
  • UK
  • inoculation period
  • transmission dynamics

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