The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom

Azra C Ghani, Marc Baquelin, Jamie T. Griffin, Stefan Flasche, R.G. Pebody, Van Hoek Albert Jan, Simon Cauchemez, Ian M. Hall, Christl A. Donnelly, Christopher Robertson, Michael T. White, Iain Barrass, Christophe Fraser, Alison Bermingham, James Truscott, Joanna Ellis, Helen E. Jenkins, George Kafatos, Tini Garske, Ross Harris & 11 others J. McMenamin, Colin Hawkins, Nick Phin, André Charlett, Maria Zambon, W. John Edmunds, Mike Catchpole, Steve Leach, Peter White, Neil M. Ferguson, Ben S. Coooper

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).
LanguageEnglish
JournalPLOS Currents: Influenza
VolumeRRN1130
Publication statusPublished - 2010

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Pandemics
Human Influenza
Oseltamivir
Scotland
England
Infection
United Kingdom
Therapeutics

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Ghani, A. C., Baquelin, M., Griffin, J. T., Flasche, S., Pebody, R. G., Albert Jan, V. H., ... Coooper, B. S. (2010). The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom. PLOS Currents: Influenza, RRN1130.
Ghani, Azra C ; Baquelin, Marc ; Griffin, Jamie T. ; Flasche, Stefan ; Pebody, R.G. ; Albert Jan, Van Hoek ; Cauchemez, Simon ; Hall, Ian M. ; Donnelly, Christl A. ; Robertson, Christopher ; White, Michael T. ; Barrass, Iain ; Fraser, Christophe ; Bermingham, Alison ; Truscott, James ; Ellis, Joanna ; Jenkins, Helen E. ; Kafatos, George ; Garske, Tini ; Harris, Ross ; McMenamin, J. ; Hawkins, Colin ; Phin, Nick ; Charlett, André ; Zambon, Maria ; Edmunds, W. John ; Catchpole, Mike ; Leach, Steve ; White, Peter ; Ferguson, Neil M. ; Coooper, Ben S. / The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom. In: PLOS Currents: Influenza. 2010 ; Vol. RRN1130.
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abstract = "We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37{\%} of transmission occurred in schools, 24{\%} in households, 28{\%} through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95{\%} CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16{\%}). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95{\%} CI 1.51-8.55).",
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Ghani, AC, Baquelin, M, Griffin, JT, Flasche, S, Pebody, RG, Albert Jan, VH, Cauchemez, S, Hall, IM, Donnelly, CA, Robertson, C, White, MT, Barrass, I, Fraser, C, Bermingham, A, Truscott, J, Ellis, J, Jenkins, HE, Kafatos, G, Garske, T, Harris, R, McMenamin, J, Hawkins, C, Phin, N, Charlett, A, Zambon, M, Edmunds, WJ, Catchpole, M, Leach, S, White, P, Ferguson, NM & Coooper, BS 2010, 'The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom' PLOS Currents: Influenza, vol. RRN1130.

The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom. / Ghani, Azra C; Baquelin, Marc; Griffin, Jamie T.; Flasche, Stefan; Pebody, R.G.; Albert Jan, Van Hoek; Cauchemez, Simon; Hall, Ian M.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Robertson, Christopher; White, Michael T.; Barrass, Iain; Fraser, Christophe; Bermingham, Alison; Truscott, James; Ellis, Joanna; Jenkins, Helen E.; Kafatos, George; Garske, Tini; Harris, Ross; McMenamin, J.; Hawkins, Colin; Phin, Nick; Charlett, André ; Zambon, Maria; Edmunds, W. John; Catchpole, Mike; Leach, Steve; White, Peter; Ferguson, Neil M.; Coooper, Ben S.

In: PLOS Currents: Influenza, Vol. RRN1130, 2010.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom

AU - Ghani, Azra C

AU - Baquelin, Marc

AU - Griffin, Jamie T.

AU - Flasche, Stefan

AU - Pebody, R.G.

AU - Albert Jan, Van Hoek

AU - Cauchemez, Simon

AU - Hall, Ian M.

AU - Donnelly, Christl A.

AU - Robertson, Christopher

AU - White, Michael T.

AU - Barrass, Iain

AU - Fraser, Christophe

AU - Bermingham, Alison

AU - Truscott, James

AU - Ellis, Joanna

AU - Jenkins, Helen E.

AU - Kafatos, George

AU - Garske, Tini

AU - Harris, Ross

AU - McMenamin, J.

AU - Hawkins, Colin

AU - Phin, Nick

AU - Charlett, André

AU - Zambon, Maria

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Catchpole, Mike

AU - Leach, Steve

AU - White, Peter

AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Coooper, Ben S.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

AB - We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

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M3 - Article

VL - RRN1130

JO - PLOS Currents: Influenza

T2 - PLOS Currents: Influenza

JF - PLOS Currents: Influenza

SN - 2157-3999

ER -

Ghani AC, Baquelin M, Griffin JT, Flasche S, Pebody RG, Albert Jan VH et al. The early transmission dynamics of H1N1 pandemic influenza in the United Kingdom. PLOS Currents: Influenza. 2010;RRN1130.