The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

Thomas J. Scotto, Harold D. Clarke, Allan Kornberg, Jason Reifler, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, Paul Whiteley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters' concerns with the worsening economy-a valence issue par excellence-in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama's successful run for the presidency. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
LanguageEnglish
Pages545-556
Number of pages12
JournalElectoral Studies
Volume29
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2010
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

election campaign
presidential election
political economy
economy
voting behavior
public policy
campaign
politics
economics
student

Keywords

  • partisanship
  • economic instability
  • voting behavior

Cite this

Scotto, Thomas J. ; Clarke, Harold D. ; Kornberg, Allan ; Reifler, Jason ; Sanders, David ; Stewart, Marianne C. ; Whiteley, Paul. / The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign. In: Electoral Studies. 2010 ; Vol. 29, No. 4. pp. 545-556.
@article{14cfb9af18d2440ea98330c51b735647,
title = "The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign",
abstract = "In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters' concerns with the worsening economy-a valence issue par excellence-in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama's successful run for the presidency. {\circledC} 2010 Elsevier Ltd.",
keywords = "partisanship, economic instability, voting behavior",
author = "Scotto, {Thomas J.} and Clarke, {Harold D.} and Allan Kornberg and Jason Reifler and David Sanders and Stewart, {Marianne C.} and Paul Whiteley",
year = "2010",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.002",
language = "English",
volume = "29",
pages = "545--556",
journal = "Electoral Studies",
issn = "0261-3794",
number = "4",

}

The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign. / Scotto, Thomas J.; Clarke, Harold D.; Kornberg, Allan; Reifler, Jason; Sanders, David; Stewart, Marianne C.; Whiteley, Paul.

In: Electoral Studies, Vol. 29, No. 4, 01.12.2010, p. 545-556.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

AU - Scotto, Thomas J.

AU - Clarke, Harold D.

AU - Kornberg, Allan

AU - Reifler, Jason

AU - Sanders, David

AU - Stewart, Marianne C.

AU - Whiteley, Paul

PY - 2010/12/1

Y1 - 2010/12/1

N2 - In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters' concerns with the worsening economy-a valence issue par excellence-in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama's successful run for the presidency. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

AB - In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters' concerns with the worsening economy-a valence issue par excellence-in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama's successful run for the presidency. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

KW - partisanship

KW - economic instability

KW - voting behavior

UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379410000417

U2 - 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.002

DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.002

M3 - Article

VL - 29

SP - 545

EP - 556

JO - Electoral Studies

T2 - Electoral Studies

JF - Electoral Studies

SN - 0261-3794

IS - 4

ER -