The British economy [June 1988]

The rate of growth of output in the British economy appears to be slowing down in line with earlier expectations for 1988. The rate of growth of domestic demand remains strong. Manufacturing investment is forecast to rise to record levels during 1988 and there is little evidence that the growth in consumer demand is slackening. The slow-down in the rate of growth is therefore largely a reflection of decline in the external demand for exports and buoyant import growth. The progressive upward movement of sterling in recent months and the evidence of increasing inflationary pressure, has placed the Government in a significant policy dilemma. Recent events are a clear illustration that interest rate policy cannot be used both to target the exchange rate and to regulate the expansion of domestic money and credit.