The British economy [December 1989]

The rate of growth of output continues to slow down. The form of the economic contraction still gives cause for concern as the output of tradeables shows few signs of holding up better than non-tradeable production - the necessary requirement if recession is to be avoided. On the credit side investment, and particularly manufacturing investment, appears to be holding up well in the face of monetary contraction. In addition, the rate of growth of export volumes appears to be rising slowly relative to imports. The recent downward movement of sterling perhaps signals a change in economic policy.