Abstract
In this paper, we engage with O’Brien’s [O’Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning – lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709–722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience – based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas – and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of “hard” multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to “soft” scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations – such as lexicographic ranking – where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 323-335 |
Number of pages | 13 |
Journal | European Journal of Operational Research |
Volume | 194 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Apr 2009 |
Keywords
- scenario planning
- academe
- business
- education
- psychology
- OR in strategic planning