Teaching scenario analysis: an action learning pedagogy

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In this paper we provide an introduction to our teaching of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis offers an excellent instructional vehicle for investigating 'wicked problems'; issues that are complex and ambiguous and require trans-disciplinary inquiry. We outline the pedagogical underpinning based on action learning and provide a critical approach from the intuitive logics school of scenario analysis. We use this in our programme in which student groups engage in semi-structured, but divergent and inclusive analysis of a selected focal issue. They then develop a set of scenario storylines that outline the limits of possibility and plausibility for a selected time-horizon year. The scenarios are portrayed not as narratives, but as vehicles for exploration of the causes and outcomes of the interplay between forces in the contextual environment that drive the unfolding future in the context of the focal issue. In this way, we provide internally-generated challenges to both individual pre-conceptions and group-level thinking.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages44-52
    Number of pages9
    JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
    Volume100
    Early online date20 May 2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2015

    Fingerprint

    Teaching
    Learning
    Students
    Thinking
    Drive
    Pedagogy
    Action learning
    Scenario analysis
    Scenarios
    Conception
    Logic
    Time horizon
    Wicked problems

    Keywords

    • action learning
    • scenario analysis
    • critical pedagogy
    • intuitive logics
    • stakeholder analysis

    Cite this

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    title = "Teaching scenario analysis: an action learning pedagogy",
    abstract = "In this paper we provide an introduction to our teaching of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis offers an excellent instructional vehicle for investigating 'wicked problems'; issues that are complex and ambiguous and require trans-disciplinary inquiry. We outline the pedagogical underpinning based on action learning and provide a critical approach from the intuitive logics school of scenario analysis. We use this in our programme in which student groups engage in semi-structured, but divergent and inclusive analysis of a selected focal issue. They then develop a set of scenario storylines that outline the limits of possibility and plausibility for a selected time-horizon year. The scenarios are portrayed not as narratives, but as vehicles for exploration of the causes and outcomes of the interplay between forces in the contextual environment that drive the unfolding future in the context of the focal issue. In this way, we provide internally-generated challenges to both individual pre-conceptions and group-level thinking.",
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    Teaching scenario analysis : an action learning pedagogy. / Bradfield, Ron; Cairns, George; Wright, George.

    In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 100, 01.11.2015, p. 44-52.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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