Systemic risk elicitation: using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

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Abstract

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)290-299
Number of pages10
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume238
Issue number1
Early online date1 Apr 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2014

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Keywords

  • problem structuring
  • risk analysis
  • group decision making

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