Systemic risk analysis: analytical support to identify priorities from causal risk maps

Recent research has shown that when assessing risk, taking account of the interaction between risks - risk systemicity - is important. This presentation reports on the development of a novel risk systemicity tool for use by cities across Europe. When developing the tool, one possible approach was to pay attention to risk systemicity through detailed research of past risk outcomes. However, such an approach can be expensive and data was not available, so there was a need to draw together judgment from a range of ‘experts’. In this case the experts came from a number of European cities, who participated in a series of one-day workshops. This resulted in the development of a causal risk map that represented a risk systemicity network which was then broken down into risk scenarios (sub-systems of risks) to create the tool. When using the tool managers are required to make judgments about the likelihood of these scenarios occurring. However, after experts have judged that a range of risk scenarios are likely to occur, how should analysis of the network inform the prioritisation of mitigation planning? This presentation focuses on the different plausible analyses that could provide robust analytical support to help identify these priorities.