System availability assessment using a parametric Bayesian approach: a case study of balling drums

Esi Saari, Jing Lin, Liangwei Zhang, Bin Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Assessment of system availability usually uses either an analytical (e.g., Markov/semi-Markov) or a simulation approach (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation-based). However, the former cannot handle complicated state changes and the latter is computationally expensive. Traditional Bayesian approaches may solve these problems; however, because of their computational difficulties, they are not widely applied. The recent proliferation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches have led to the use of the Bayesian inference in a wide variety of fields. This study proposes a new approach to system availability assessment: a parametric Bayesian approach using MCMC, an approach that takes advantages of the analytical and simulation methods. By using this approach, mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are treated as distributions instead of being “averaged”, which better reflects reality and compensates for the limitations of simulation data sample size. To demonstrate the approach, the paper considers a case study of a balling drum system in a mining company. In this system, MTTF and MTTR are determined in a Bayesian Weibull model and a Bayesian lognormal model respectively. The results show that the proposed approach can integrate the analytical and simulation methods to assess system availability and could be applied to other technical problems in asset management (e.g., other industries, other systems).

LanguageEnglish
Number of pages7
JournalInternational Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management
Early online date13 Jul 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 13 Jul 2019

Fingerprint

Availability
Markov processes
Repair
Asset management
Industry
Bayesian approach
Monte Carlo simulation
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Simulation
Simulation methods
Analytical methods

Keywords

  • asset management
  • Bayesian statistics
  • maintainability
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
  • mining industry
  • reliability
  • system availability

Cite this

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abstract = "Assessment of system availability usually uses either an analytical (e.g., Markov/semi-Markov) or a simulation approach (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation-based). However, the former cannot handle complicated state changes and the latter is computationally expensive. Traditional Bayesian approaches may solve these problems; however, because of their computational difficulties, they are not widely applied. The recent proliferation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches have led to the use of the Bayesian inference in a wide variety of fields. This study proposes a new approach to system availability assessment: a parametric Bayesian approach using MCMC, an approach that takes advantages of the analytical and simulation methods. By using this approach, mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are treated as distributions instead of being “averaged”, which better reflects reality and compensates for the limitations of simulation data sample size. To demonstrate the approach, the paper considers a case study of a balling drum system in a mining company. In this system, MTTF and MTTR are determined in a Bayesian Weibull model and a Bayesian lognormal model respectively. The results show that the proposed approach can integrate the analytical and simulation methods to assess system availability and could be applied to other technical problems in asset management (e.g., other industries, other systems).",
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System availability assessment using a parametric Bayesian approach : a case study of balling drums. / Saari, Esi; Lin, Jing; Zhang, Liangwei; Liu, Bin.

13.07.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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