Statistical multi-criteria evaluation of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper we assess and compare the effectiveness of four classes of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods applied to a wide range of virtual collision scenarios. We consider the kinetic impactor, laser ablation, the ion beaming technique and two variants of the gravity tractor. A simple but realistic model of each deflection method was integrated within a systematic approach to size the spacecraft and predict the achievable deflection for a given mission and a given maximum mass at launch. A sample of 100 synthetic asteroids was then created from the current distribution of NEAs and global optimisation methods were used to identify the optimal solution in each case according to two criteria: the minimum duration between the departure date and the time of virtual impact required to deflect the NEA by more than two Earth radii and the maximum miss-distance achieved within a total duration of 10 years. Our results provide an interesting insight into the range of applicability of individual deflection methods and argue the need to develop multiple methods in parallel for a global mitigation of all possible threats.
LanguageEnglish
Pages293-307
Number of pages15
JournalActa Astronautica
Volume140
Early online date26 Aug 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2017

Fingerprint

Asteroids
Laser ablation
Global optimization
Spacecraft
Gravitation
Earth (planet)
Kinetics
Ions

Keywords

  • asteroid deflection
  • laser ablation
  • kinetic impactor
  • ion beam shepherd
  • gravity tractor

Cite this

@article{601036169e924eda87cbc9c9c32d4215,
title = "Statistical multi-criteria evaluation of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods",
abstract = "In this paper we assess and compare the effectiveness of four classes of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods applied to a wide range of virtual collision scenarios. We consider the kinetic impactor, laser ablation, the ion beaming technique and two variants of the gravity tractor. A simple but realistic model of each deflection method was integrated within a systematic approach to size the spacecraft and predict the achievable deflection for a given mission and a given maximum mass at launch. A sample of 100 synthetic asteroids was then created from the current distribution of NEAs and global optimisation methods were used to identify the optimal solution in each case according to two criteria: the minimum duration between the departure date and the time of virtual impact required to deflect the NEA by more than two Earth radii and the maximum miss-distance achieved within a total duration of 10 years. Our results provide an interesting insight into the range of applicability of individual deflection methods and argue the need to develop multiple methods in parallel for a global mitigation of all possible threats.",
keywords = "asteroid deflection, laser ablation, kinetic impactor, ion beam shepherd, gravity tractor",
author = "Nicolas Thiry and Massimiliano Vasile",
year = "2017",
month = "11",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.actaastro.2017.08.021",
language = "English",
volume = "140",
pages = "293--307",
journal = "Acta Astronautica",
issn = "0094-5765",

}

Statistical multi-criteria evaluation of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods. / Thiry, Nicolas; Vasile, Massimiliano.

In: Acta Astronautica, Vol. 140, 01.11.2017, p. 293-307.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Statistical multi-criteria evaluation of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods

AU - Thiry, Nicolas

AU - Vasile, Massimiliano

PY - 2017/11/1

Y1 - 2017/11/1

N2 - In this paper we assess and compare the effectiveness of four classes of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods applied to a wide range of virtual collision scenarios. We consider the kinetic impactor, laser ablation, the ion beaming technique and two variants of the gravity tractor. A simple but realistic model of each deflection method was integrated within a systematic approach to size the spacecraft and predict the achievable deflection for a given mission and a given maximum mass at launch. A sample of 100 synthetic asteroids was then created from the current distribution of NEAs and global optimisation methods were used to identify the optimal solution in each case according to two criteria: the minimum duration between the departure date and the time of virtual impact required to deflect the NEA by more than two Earth radii and the maximum miss-distance achieved within a total duration of 10 years. Our results provide an interesting insight into the range of applicability of individual deflection methods and argue the need to develop multiple methods in parallel for a global mitigation of all possible threats.

AB - In this paper we assess and compare the effectiveness of four classes of non-nuclear asteroid deflection methods applied to a wide range of virtual collision scenarios. We consider the kinetic impactor, laser ablation, the ion beaming technique and two variants of the gravity tractor. A simple but realistic model of each deflection method was integrated within a systematic approach to size the spacecraft and predict the achievable deflection for a given mission and a given maximum mass at launch. A sample of 100 synthetic asteroids was then created from the current distribution of NEAs and global optimisation methods were used to identify the optimal solution in each case according to two criteria: the minimum duration between the departure date and the time of virtual impact required to deflect the NEA by more than two Earth radii and the maximum miss-distance achieved within a total duration of 10 years. Our results provide an interesting insight into the range of applicability of individual deflection methods and argue the need to develop multiple methods in parallel for a global mitigation of all possible threats.

KW - asteroid deflection

KW - laser ablation

KW - kinetic impactor

KW - ion beam shepherd

KW - gravity tractor

UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00945765?sdc=1

U2 - 10.1016/j.actaastro.2017.08.021

DO - 10.1016/j.actaastro.2017.08.021

M3 - Article

VL - 140

SP - 293

EP - 307

JO - Acta Astronautica

T2 - Acta Astronautica

JF - Acta Astronautica

SN - 0094-5765

ER -