Social determinants of spatial inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes across England: a multiscale geographically weighted regression analysis

A variety of factors are associated with greater COVID-19 morbidity or mortality, due to how these factors influence exposure to (in the case of morbidity) or severity of (in the case of mortality) COVID-19 infections. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression to study spatial variation in the factors associated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates at the local authority level across England (UK). We investigate the period between March 2020 and March 2021, prior to the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination program. We consider a variety of factors including demographic (e.g. age, gender, and ethnicity), health (e.g. rates of smoking, obesity, and diabetes), social (e.g. Index of Multiple Deprivation), and economic (e.g. the Gini coefficient and economic complexity index) factors that have previously been found to impact COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The Index of Multiple Deprivation has a significant impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths in all local authorities, although the effect is the strongest in the south of England. Higher proportions of ethnic minorities are associated with higher levels of COVID-19 mortality, with the strongest effect being found in the west of England. There is again a similar pattern in terms of cases, but strongest in the north of the country. Other factors including age and gender are also found to have significant effects on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, with differential spatial effects across the country. The results provide insights into how national and local policymakers can take account of localized factors to address spatial health inequalities and address future infectious disease pandemics.