Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment

Piyush M. Mehta, Martin Kubicek, Edmondo Minisci, Massimiliano Vasile

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break- up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and uncontrolled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions.
LanguageEnglish
Pages193–211
Number of pages19
JournalAdvances in Space Research
Volume59
Issue number1
Early online date1 Sep 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2017

Fingerprint

High Dimensional Model Representation
Reentry
reentry
sensitivity analysis
debris
Debris
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
trajectories
spacecraft breakup
Uncertainty
Probabilistic Analysis
ellipsoids
Modeling
normal density functions
aerodynamics
modeling
derivation
trajectory
Trajectories

Keywords

  • space debris
  • reentry modelling
  • ground impact
  • probabilistic distribution
  • re-entry
  • space situational awareness
  • low Earth orbit (LEO)

Cite this

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title = "Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment",
abstract = "Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break- up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and uncontrolled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions.",
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AU - Minisci, Edmondo

AU - Vasile, Massimiliano

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KW - space debris

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KW - space situational awareness

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